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	<title>Comments on: Global Warming Blowhards</title>
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	<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/06/global-warming.html</link>
	<description>Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future.</description>
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		<title>By: Fair and balanced</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/06/global-warming.html#comment-418440</link>
		<dc:creator>Fair and balanced</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 09 Jul 2007 15:56:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/06/global-warming-blowhards.html#comment-418440</guid>
		<description>CBS 4 Reporter Shomari Stone was praised on the “Schnitt Show,” a syndicated, moderately conservative talk-show, for his ground-breaking report on &quot;Global Warming.&quot;  ( http://cbs4.com/video/?id=34785@wfor.dayport.com )

South Florida affiliate station 610 WIOD airs the show from 3:00pm to 6:00pm, Monday - Friday. On average, host Todd Schnitt has an estimated 800,000 listening audience across the country after scoring a huge deal XM Satellite radio.

The Schnitt Show began praising Shomari Stone on Monday, May 21, 2007 at 4:00pm about his report on Global Warming.

Schnitt said, “I have to give credit where credit is due. I have to highlight this individual. I am taking the time to reach out to a reporter, Shomari Stone, in Miami, he’s a CBS 4 WFOR reporter. Shomari did a news story on Global Warming. Instead of asking Hurricane Expert Dr. William Gray about hurricanes, he did a story about how Dr. Gray says humans ARE NOT causing global warming.” “Shomari Stone dared to expose the other side. He had the cahoonays.”

“I have no idea what Shomari’s position is personally. I have no idea. But you’ve got to hand it to him for presenting the other side of the story. A rarity. He’s good. Good job Shomari Stone. I appreciated the diligence that you put into the report.&quot; &quot;Finally, mainstream media, has a Dr., a professor that says, wait a sec, not so fast, on this annointed reason that’s been shoved down our faces. That’s all I ask for. Is just the other side of the debate. I’m not saying Al Gore should not present his stuff in &quot;An Inconvenient Truth.&quot; I just like both sides of an issue presented. Fantastic report! Finally I can’t tell you the last time I saw something like that. I don’t think it’s been done.”


You can watch CBS 4 Reporter Shomari Stone&#039;s Exclusive Global Warming Report by clicking or copy and pasting the following link:

http://cbs4.com/video/?id=34785@wfor.dayport.com
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>CBS 4 Reporter Shomari Stone was praised on the “Schnitt Show,” a syndicated, moderately conservative talk-show, for his ground-breaking report on &#8220;Global Warming.&#8221;  ( <a href="http://cbs4.com/video/?id=34785@wfor.dayport.com" rel="nofollow">http://cbs4.com/video/?id=34785@wfor.dayport.com</a> )</p>
<p>South Florida affiliate station 610 WIOD airs the show from 3:00pm to 6:00pm, Monday &#8211; Friday. On average, host Todd Schnitt has an estimated 800,000 listening audience across the country after scoring a huge deal XM Satellite radio.</p>
<p>The Schnitt Show began praising Shomari Stone on Monday, May 21, 2007 at 4:00pm about his report on Global Warming.</p>
<p>Schnitt said, “I have to give credit where credit is due. I have to highlight this individual. I am taking the time to reach out to a reporter, Shomari Stone, in Miami, he’s a CBS 4 WFOR reporter. Shomari did a news story on Global Warming. Instead of asking Hurricane Expert Dr. William Gray about hurricanes, he did a story about how Dr. Gray says humans ARE NOT causing global warming.” “Shomari Stone dared to expose the other side. He had the cahoonays.”</p>
<p>“I have no idea what Shomari’s position is personally. I have no idea. But you’ve got to hand it to him for presenting the other side of the story. A rarity. He’s good. Good job Shomari Stone. I appreciated the diligence that you put into the report.&#8221; &#8220;Finally, mainstream media, has a Dr., a professor that says, wait a sec, not so fast, on this annointed reason that’s been shoved down our faces. That’s all I ask for. Is just the other side of the debate. I’m not saying Al Gore should not present his stuff in &#8220;An Inconvenient Truth.&#8221; I just like both sides of an issue presented. Fantastic report! Finally I can’t tell you the last time I saw something like that. I don’t think it’s been done.”</p>
<p>You can watch CBS 4 Reporter Shomari Stone&#8217;s Exclusive Global Warming Report by clicking or copy and pasting the following link:</p>
<p><a href="http://cbs4.com/video/?id=34785@wfor.dayport.com" rel="nofollow">http://cbs4.com/video/?id=34785@wfor.dayport.com</a></p>
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		<title>By: Mike</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/06/global-warming.html#comment-418439</link>
		<dc:creator>Mike</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Jul 2007 22:25:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/06/global-warming-blowhards.html#comment-418439</guid>
		<description>Perhaps I am confused, but isn&#039;t it possible that both Limbaugh is &quot;right&quot; and Lindzen is &quot;wrong.&quot;  Perhaps someone will correct me, but I had thought that Gore does not really rely on the IPCC consensus but brings up all kinds of results that assume more drastic consequences than the most likely scenario discussed by the IPCC.  In that event, Limbaugh might be correct to bet with Gore, even though his bet would not challenge the IPCC.  In other words, Limbaugh&#039;s challenge to Gore is less controversial than Lindzen&#039;s statement that temperatures are as likely to fall as rise.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Perhaps I am confused, but isn&#8217;t it possible that both Limbaugh is &#8220;right&#8221; and Lindzen is &#8220;wrong.&#8221;  Perhaps someone will correct me, but I had thought that Gore does not really rely on the IPCC consensus but brings up all kinds of results that assume more drastic consequences than the most likely scenario discussed by the IPCC.  In that event, Limbaugh might be correct to bet with Gore, even though his bet would not challenge the IPCC.  In other words, Limbaugh&#8217;s challenge to Gore is less controversial than Lindzen&#8217;s statement that temperatures are as likely to fall as rise.</p>
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		<title>By: Steve</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/06/global-warming.html#comment-418438</link>
		<dc:creator>Steve</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 01 Jul 2007 18:37:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/06/global-warming-blowhards.html#comment-418438</guid>
		<description>There are some conflict of interest implications to betting on climate change.  Environmental activists such as Mr Gore do not harp on about global warming for giggles, they are trying to promote changes that would mitigate the perceived threat.

If Mr Gore made a meaningful bet with Mr Limbaugh (i.e. for a significant chunk of Gore&#039;s net worth), Mr Gore would have an incentive to stop his activism in order to decrease the chances of action on global warming and increase the chances of collecting on the bet.

This sort of thing is why Pete Rose isn&#039;t in the hall of fame.

Having said that, smaller bets (i.e. enough money to be interesting, but not enough to modify behavior) have some significant value in that formulating the bet forces us to set out specific predictions that can then be either confirmed or falsified.

The value of this approach was demonstrated by the famous Simon-Ehrlich bet.  The results of which conclusively sunk Mr Ehrlich&#039;s theories on resource scarcity (interestingly Mr Ehrlich is now a noted proponent of global warming, which just goes to show that a history of being consistently and spectacularly wrong isn&#039;t a barrier to getting your name in the papers).

I suspect the Mr Gore would have a much better chance of winning a reasonably formulated bet than Mr Ehrlich did.  Global warming is a far more credible proposition than Mr Ehrlich&#039;s Malthusian rants.  Regardless, formulating a proposition (or set of propositions) that can be conclusively  confirmed or falsified is a very valuable intellectual exercise.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There are some conflict of interest implications to betting on climate change.  Environmental activists such as Mr Gore do not harp on about global warming for giggles, they are trying to promote changes that would mitigate the perceived threat.</p>
<p>If Mr Gore made a meaningful bet with Mr Limbaugh (i.e. for a significant chunk of Gore&#8217;s net worth), Mr Gore would have an incentive to stop his activism in order to decrease the chances of action on global warming and increase the chances of collecting on the bet.</p>
<p>This sort of thing is why Pete Rose isn&#8217;t in the hall of fame.</p>
<p>Having said that, smaller bets (i.e. enough money to be interesting, but not enough to modify behavior) have some significant value in that formulating the bet forces us to set out specific predictions that can then be either confirmed or falsified.</p>
<p>The value of this approach was demonstrated by the famous Simon-Ehrlich bet.  The results of which conclusively sunk Mr Ehrlich&#8217;s theories on resource scarcity (interestingly Mr Ehrlich is now a noted proponent of global warming, which just goes to show that a history of being consistently and spectacularly wrong isn&#8217;t a barrier to getting your name in the papers).</p>
<p>I suspect the Mr Gore would have a much better chance of winning a reasonably formulated bet than Mr Ehrlich did.  Global warming is a far more credible proposition than Mr Ehrlich&#8217;s Malthusian rants.  Regardless, formulating a proposition (or set of propositions) that can be conclusively  confirmed or falsified is a very valuable intellectual exercise.</p>
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		<title>By: Hopefully Anonymous</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/06/global-warming.html#comment-418437</link>
		<dc:creator>Hopefully Anonymous</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 01 Jul 2007 13:20:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/06/global-warming-blowhards.html#comment-418437</guid>
		<description>Alex, these various popular biases (perhaps combined with various redistributive effects that keep speculative money from quickly concentrating in the hands of the least biased people) seem to be a general limit on the accuracy of predictive markets. The responses Ann&#039;s post has engendered by you and others is part of why I think it was a valuable contribution to the thread. It&#039;s worth looking at the various natural predictive markets already in existence and see what they indicate about the likilihood of various phenomena to occur -if nothing else, it may be worth it to inform guiding the creation of markets specifically for the purpose of predicting future events. For example, we may want to screen market participants for general literacy on the topic and threshhold level of lack of bias, but then allow exceptions in if they&#039;re willing to place unusually large investments to allow relatively biased, illiterate people who happen to have insider information to participate in the market.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Alex, these various popular biases (perhaps combined with various redistributive effects that keep speculative money from quickly concentrating in the hands of the least biased people) seem to be a general limit on the accuracy of predictive markets. The responses Ann&#8217;s post has engendered by you and others is part of why I think it was a valuable contribution to the thread. It&#8217;s worth looking at the various natural predictive markets already in existence and see what they indicate about the likilihood of various phenomena to occur -if nothing else, it may be worth it to inform guiding the creation of markets specifically for the purpose of predicting future events. For example, we may want to screen market participants for general literacy on the topic and threshhold level of lack of bias, but then allow exceptions in if they&#8217;re willing to place unusually large investments to allow relatively biased, illiterate people who happen to have insider information to participate in the market.</p>
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		<title>By: TGGP</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/06/global-warming.html#comment-418436</link>
		<dc:creator>TGGP</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 01 Jul 2007 07:50:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/06/global-warming-blowhards.html#comment-418436</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;If warming is from other causes than anthropogenic causes, then screw it.&lt;/i&gt;
What!? &lt;a href=&quot;http://daviddfriedman.blogspot.com/2006/12/global-warming-confusing-moral-and.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;David Friedman smacks that argument down here&lt;/a&gt;.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>If warming is from other causes than anthropogenic causes, then screw it.</i><br />
What!? <a href="http://daviddfriedman.blogspot.com/2006/12/global-warming-confusing-moral-and.html" rel="nofollow">David Friedman smacks that argument down here</a>.</p>
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		<title>By: Floxina</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/06/global-warming.html#comment-418435</link>
		<dc:creator>Floxina</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 30 Jun 2007 23:01:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/06/global-warming-blowhards.html#comment-418435</guid>
		<description>Anyone who refuses to bet even money on whether global warming is a catastrophe is a coward.  This is true whether his name is Rush Limbaugh or Robin Hanson.  Let&#039;s get real, people.  If warming is not a catastrophe then screw it.  If warming is from other causes than anthropogenic causes, then screw it.  That is not settled.  The IPCC is not a consensus of informed climate experts.  Far from it.  IPCC is highly political.  Watch yourselves.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Anyone who refuses to bet even money on whether global warming is a catastrophe is a coward.  This is true whether his name is Rush Limbaugh or Robin Hanson.  Let&#8217;s get real, people.  If warming is not a catastrophe then screw it.  If warming is from other causes than anthropogenic causes, then screw it.  That is not settled.  The IPCC is not a consensus of informed climate experts.  Far from it.  IPCC is highly political.  Watch yourselves.</p>
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		<title>By: Alex</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/06/global-warming.html#comment-418434</link>
		<dc:creator>Alex</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 30 Jun 2007 16:37:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/06/global-warming-blowhards.html#comment-418434</guid>
		<description>Panu: Cite?

HA: I&#039;m very dubious of the &quot;beachfront property&quot; thing because real estate of all kinds is on a massive bull run right across the world, itself probably due to high global liquidity. As the effects of sea-level rise aren&#039;t predicted for much before 2100, any signal is likely to be outweighed by the secular boom in real estate.

However, there are effects that are expected sooner - more, stronger storms being a case in point. Arguably, buying property in Florida has been shown to be unwise since Hurricane Andrew in 1992, and it&#039;s only because there&#039;s a perception of an implicit Federal guarantee that people still do it. Certain biases - catastrophe blindness, confirmation bias - would suggest that response is only likely after an example. Hence - Louisiana.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Panu: Cite?</p>
<p>HA: I&#8217;m very dubious of the &#8220;beachfront property&#8221; thing because real estate of all kinds is on a massive bull run right across the world, itself probably due to high global liquidity. As the effects of sea-level rise aren&#8217;t predicted for much before 2100, any signal is likely to be outweighed by the secular boom in real estate.</p>
<p>However, there are effects that are expected sooner &#8211; more, stronger storms being a case in point. Arguably, buying property in Florida has been shown to be unwise since Hurricane Andrew in 1992, and it&#8217;s only because there&#8217;s a perception of an implicit Federal guarantee that people still do it. Certain biases &#8211; catastrophe blindness, confirmation bias &#8211; would suggest that response is only likely after an example. Hence &#8211; Louisiana.</p>
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		<title>By: Panu Horsmalahti</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/06/global-warming.html#comment-418433</link>
		<dc:creator>Panu Horsmalahti</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 30 Jun 2007 14:33:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/06/global-warming-blowhards.html#comment-418433</guid>
		<description>There exists a growing number of scientists who are predicting global cooling starting around 2020.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There exists a growing number of scientists who are predicting global cooling starting around 2020.</p>
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		<title>By: REstalmán</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/06/global-warming.html#comment-418432</link>
		<dc:creator>REstalmán</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 29 Jun 2007 23:10:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/06/global-warming-blowhards.html#comment-418432</guid>
		<description>Isn&#039;t all of this an argumentum ad crumenam?
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Isn&#8217;t all of this an argumentum ad crumenam?</p>
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		<title>By: Barkley Rosser</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/06/global-warming.html#comment-418431</link>
		<dc:creator>Barkley Rosser</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 29 Jun 2007 19:39:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/06/global-warming-blowhards.html#comment-418431</guid>
		<description>Aaron&#039;s comment highlights a problem here.  One has to be very precise about what one is betting on.  Thus, does a onetime storm that floods the streets count as &quot;New York being underwater&quot;?  What about all the debates we have already seen about what is the actual global temperature?  We talking about some kind of an average, after all, and it is well known that even while the average may be going in one direction, certain parts of the earth may be going in the opposite direction.  So, one would have to make sure that one were betting on something clearly determinable in an unambiguous way, such as the 1980s debate between Julian Simon and Paul Ehrlich over the prices of certain commodities in 1990 relative to 1980.

In the meantime, I am still waiting for Robin to set up an option on the futures price of whether or not Rush will bet.  I want to go both long and short on it, preferably in the most complicated way possible, :-).

</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Aaron&#8217;s comment highlights a problem here.  One has to be very precise about what one is betting on.  Thus, does a onetime storm that floods the streets count as &#8220;New York being underwater&#8221;?  What about all the debates we have already seen about what is the actual global temperature?  We talking about some kind of an average, after all, and it is well known that even while the average may be going in one direction, certain parts of the earth may be going in the opposite direction.  So, one would have to make sure that one were betting on something clearly determinable in an unambiguous way, such as the 1980s debate between Julian Simon and Paul Ehrlich over the prices of certain commodities in 1990 relative to 1980.</p>
<p>In the meantime, I am still waiting for Robin to set up an option on the futures price of whether or not Rush will bet.  I want to go both long and short on it, preferably in the most complicated way possible, <img src='http://www.overcomingbias.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':-)' class='wp-smiley' /> .</p>
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