Global Warming Blowhards

On Monday Rush Limbaugh said:

Here’s how we could once and for all prove that global warming alarmists are full of BS.  We create a betting line on any or all of their dire prognostications.  Just go get Gore’s movie, and say, "Okay, what are the odds that New York City will be under water in 20 years?  What are the odds that Greenland is going to melt," whatever is in there, and then let people bet.  Now, I would bet against every one of those assertions, every prediction that the global warming people are making, I would bet against.

And they won’t.  You know damn well that Laurie David will not put her divorce millions on the line, and you know for a fact that Gore won’t put his tobacco cash — that’s where a lot of his money comes from, his book cash or his movie — they will not bet for their own prognostications. … Folks, do you realize how rich we could get here?  We would prove that nobody believes this stuff!  Even the scientists, even the politicians, nobody would bet that their predictions are right.  All we’d have to do is all bet against them and we’d be right on every one of them. 

This brought to mind James Annan from 2005:

I’ve recently been trying to establish consensus on the subject of global temperature rise, by arranging bets with sceptics who claim that the IPCC TAR is overly alarmist. Richard Lindzen was the first I noted who forecast here that over the next 20 years, the climate is as likely to cool as warm, and said he would be prepared to bet on it. However, when challenged to a bet, it turns out that he expects odds of 50:1 in his favour, ie he will only bet on the chances of cooling being at the 2% level or higher, far short of his 50% claim. … He also suggested an alternative bet … Again, no-one who believes the IPCC summary would find his offer attractive, since it has negative expected value. … The list of sceptics who have refused to bet against the IPCC position has grown steadily since then, and now also includes Michaels, Jaworowski, Corbyn, Ebell, Kininmonth, Mashnich and Idso

I’ll offer at least $1000 at ten to one odds against Rush putting even a quarter million dollars of his own at risk in anti-IPCC-odds bets with Annan or similar others in the next year.  Do I have any takers?  (Hat tip to Chris Masse.) 

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