Comments on: Death Risk Biases http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/06/death_risk_bias.html Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future. Sun, 12 Feb 2012 02:20:49 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.3 By: Nat Torkington http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/06/death_risk_bias.html#comment-418502 Nat Torkington Tue, 26 Jun 2007 21:11:34 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/06/death-risk-biases.html#comment-418502 So if it's confirmed repeatedly that people suck at estimating risk, what exercises can people do to better assess risk? E.g., I met a guy in Australia who was launching a startup. He'd been a grad student in the mathy part of computer science known as "machine learning" (Artificial Intelligence without the magic robot promises) and he'd realized he had a talent for poker. He attributed his balls to start the startup and his success to date purely to the poker--it taught him, he said, how to balance risk and reward. I have kids and would love to know what I can do to help them get a more accurate intuition for risk and reward. So if it’s confirmed repeatedly that people suck at estimating risk, what exercises can people do to better assess risk?

E.g., I met a guy in Australia who was launching a startup. He’d been a grad student in the mathy part of computer science known as “machine learning” (Artificial Intelligence without the magic robot promises) and he’d realized he had a talent for poker. He attributed his balls to start the startup and his success to date purely to the poker–it taught him, he said, how to balance risk and reward.

I have kids and would love to know what I can do to help them get a more accurate intuition for risk and reward.

]]> By: Hopefully Anonymous http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/06/death_risk_bias.html#comment-418501 Hopefully Anonymous Mon, 25 Jun 2007 20:15:51 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/06/death-risk-biases.html#comment-418501 Stuart, if your, my and Robin's goal is to maximize persistence odds for the three of us, it could be wasted effort to try to convince 6 billion people (or 300 million) to estimate risks better in a diffuse way like that. Stuart, if your, my and Robin’s goal is to maximize persistence odds for the three of us, it could be wasted effort to try to convince 6 billion people (or 300 million) to estimate risks better in a diffuse way like that.

]]> By: Hopefully Anonymous http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/06/death_risk_bias.html#comment-418500 Hopefully Anonymous Mon, 25 Jun 2007 20:14:26 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/06/death-risk-biases.html#comment-418500 It's funny the line you end on, Robin, because that would be a very enjoyable blog, at least to me. What would supplement such asbtracts nicely would be commentary on them by the experts here. It’s funny the line you end on, Robin, because that would be a very enjoyable blog, at least to me. What would supplement such asbtracts nicely would be commentary on them by the experts here.

]]> By: Stuart Armstrong http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/06/death_risk_bias.html#comment-418499 Stuart Armstrong Mon, 25 Jun 2007 17:04:22 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/06/death-risk-biases.html#comment-418499 How can we get the message to everyone, though? Giant add campaigns that scream "You are bad at estimating risks!" probably won't work. Though there are a few sucessful campaigns along these lignes - especially for drunk driving, convincing people they can't estimate how much they've drunk. But that has two advantages - people are far more willing to believe that alchool impares their judgement, than that their judgement is naturaly impared. Secondly there is a paternalism behind it all that "knows" and enforces the correct behaviour. Neither of these are present in general. How can we get the message to everyone, though? Giant add campaigns that scream “You are bad at estimating risks!” probably won’t work. Though there are a few sucessful campaigns along these lignes – especially for drunk driving, convincing people they can’t estimate how much they’ve drunk.

But that has two advantages – people are far more willing to believe that alchool impares their judgement, than that their judgement is naturaly impared. Secondly there is a paternalism behind it all that “knows” and enforces the correct behaviour. Neither of these are present in general.

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