http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/05/when_difference.html Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future. Sat, 11 Feb 2012 23:23:58 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.3 http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/05/when_difference.html#comment-419122 Stuart Armstrong Thu, 24 May 2007 14:05:54 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/05/when-differences-make-a-difference.html#comment-419122 Scott Page's position provides a strong argument for democracy - always have a bunch of alternative parties hanging around, out of power; they may hit on the truth, and be needed later. Scott Page’s position provides a strong argument for democracy – always have a bunch of alternative parties hanging around, out of power; they may hit on the truth, and be needed later.

]]> http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/05/when_difference.html#comment-419121 Peter McCluskey Tue, 22 May 2007 22:22:31 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/05/when-differences-make-a-difference.html#comment-419121 You write as if there's only one "point of prediction markets". Incentives are certainly important, but why should they be the only motivation? It sounds plausible that the wisdom of crowds is an important contributing factor to the accuracy of prediction markets. It would be nice to see good evidence for or against that. You write as if there’s only one “point of prediction markets”. Incentives are certainly important, but why should they be the only motivation?
It sounds plausible that the wisdom of crowds is an important contributing factor to the accuracy of prediction markets. It would be nice to see good evidence for or against that.

]]> http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/05/when_difference.html#comment-419120 Eliezer Yudkowsky Mon, 21 May 2007 18:03:20 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/05/when-differences-make-a-difference.html#comment-419120 See <a href="http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/04/the_error_of_cr.html" rel="nofollow">The Error of Crowds</a> for one of my own disagreements with Scott Page. See The Error of Crowds for one of my own disagreements with Scott Page.

]]> http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/05/when_difference.html#comment-419119 Mike Linksvayer Mon, 21 May 2007 16:59:05 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/05/when-differences-make-a-difference.html#comment-419119 Wouldn't more diversity increase the chance that someone knows the answer and is confident enough to make a bet and also increase the chance that there are ignorant people willing to take the bet? In other words, improve chance that someone will have the answer and increase incentive for them to reveal the answer. Wouldn’t more diversity increase the chance that someone knows the answer and is confident enough to make a bet and also increase the chance that there are ignorant people willing to take the bet? In other words, improve chance that someone will have the answer and increase incentive for them to reveal the answer.

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