http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/05/the_worst_youve.html Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future. Sun, 12 Feb 2012 03:06:37 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.3 http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/05/the_worst_youve.html#comment-419444 Paul Gowder Wed, 09 May 2007 21:10:37 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/05/the-worst-youve-seen-isnt-the-worst-there-is.html#comment-419444 Robin: the cost of being a successful politician is much higher than being a successful school principal, priest, etc. (Possibly the same with respect to CEOs. The competition for successful politician jobs is much more intense, it requires long-term and pervasive kinds of reputation/human capital investment, like getting into the party organization and paying your dues, being careful never to be caught smoking a joint, marrying right, etc. At the same time, the formal salaries for those jobs are rather low compared to what someone with similar talent and less investment would be able to make on the market. So one has reason to suspect that politicians are motivated by some other set of payoffs, either altruistic ones or evil ones... Robin: the cost of being a successful politician is much higher than being a successful school principal, priest, etc. (Possibly the same with respect to CEOs. The competition for successful politician jobs is much more intense, it requires long-term and pervasive kinds of reputation/human capital investment, like getting into the party organization and paying your dues, being careful never to be caught smoking a joint, marrying right, etc. At the same time, the formal salaries for those jobs are rather low compared to what someone with similar talent and less investment would be able to make on the market. So one has reason to suspect that politicians are motivated by some other set of payoffs, either altruistic ones or evil ones…

]]> http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/05/the_worst_youve.html#comment-419443 Stuart Armstrong Wed, 09 May 2007 20:50:51 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/05/the-worst-youve-seen-isnt-the-worst-there-is.html#comment-419443 Should people from war-torn or disintegrating countries be considered more reliable judges of candidates? Somalian refugees could be interviewed on the news for their impressions of politicians. Maybe psychiatrists and prison guards could also be asked their opinion. Or are there other biases that would render this information valueless? Should people from war-torn or disintegrating countries be considered more reliable judges of candidates? Somalian refugees could be interviewed on the news for their impressions of politicians. Maybe psychiatrists and prison guards could also be asked their opinion.
Or are there other biases that would render this information valueless?

]]> http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/05/the_worst_youve.html#comment-419442 David J. Balan Wed, 09 May 2007 20:08:36 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/05/the-worst-youve-seen-isnt-the-worst-there-is.html#comment-419442 Nothing about the post requires that we be talking specifically about politicians, but I do think that is the most important example, because it is mostly politicians who have the power to make war and put people in jail and stuff like that. Nothing about the post requires that we be talking specifically about politicians, but I do think that is the most important example, because it is mostly politicians who have the power to make war and put people in jail and stuff like that.

]]> http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/05/the_worst_youve.html#comment-419441 Stuart Armstrong Wed, 09 May 2007 19:36:34 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/05/the-worst-youve-seen-isnt-the-worst-there-is.html#comment-419441 <i>politicians have enormous scope to abuse their power</i> With the press as it is today, I'd say that politicians have far less scope to abuse their power that CEO's and other powerful figures. My impression is that politicians are more obssesed with gaining and keeping power, far above "abusing it" or often even "using it". politicians have enormous scope to abuse their power
With the press as it is today, I’d say that politicians have far less scope to abuse their power that CEO’s and other powerful figures. My impression is that politicians are more obssesed with gaining and keeping power, far above “abusing it” or often even “using it”.

]]> http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/05/the_worst_youve.html#comment-419440 Eliezer Yudkowsky Wed, 09 May 2007 15:59:13 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/05/the-worst-youve-seen-isnt-the-worst-there-is.html#comment-419440 Don't know about the temptation per se, but when dealing with a politician we might suspect greater skill at concealment, greater drive on average, and a stronger impulse toward universalization. Don’t know about the temptation per se, but when dealing with a politician we might suspect greater skill at concealment, greater drive on average, and a stronger impulse toward universalization.

]]> http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/05/the_worst_youve.html#comment-419439 Robin Hanson Wed, 09 May 2007 14:04:35 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/05/the-worst-youve-seen-isnt-the-worst-there-is.html#comment-419439 It is not clear to me why you think the temptation to benefit from harm is stronger in a politician than in a CEO, a school principle, a pastor/priest, or any other social leader. It is not clear to me why you think the temptation to benefit from harm is stronger in a politician than in a CEO, a school principle, a pastor/priest, or any other social leader.

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