Comments on: The Conspiracy Glitch http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/05/the_conspiracy_.html Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future. Sun, 12 Feb 2012 01:09:57 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.3 By: _Felix http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/05/the_conspiracy_.html#comment-419476 _Felix Sun, 15 Jul 2007 14:40:49 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/05/the-conspiracy-glitch.html#comment-419476 Hey, I just thought of something. If faced with a liar in real life, acting confident and omniscient is a strategy for getting him to crack and reveal whatever tangled web he is concealing. So the same thing may apply with conspiracy theorists, who act intuitively as if anybody they speak to is part of the cover-up, or at least in denial. That's one factor; another is that it <i>is</i> an art form, because conspiracy theories are (for some people) entertaining conversational fare, like ghost stories, best told under a veil of sincere belief. Hey, I just thought of something. If faced with a liar in real life, acting confident and omniscient is a strategy for getting him to crack and reveal whatever tangled web he is concealing. So the same thing may apply with conspiracy theorists, who act intuitively as if anybody they speak to is part of the cover-up, or at least in denial.

That’s one factor; another is that it is an art form, because conspiracy theories are (for some people) entertaining conversational fare, like ghost stories, best told under a veil of sincere belief.

]]> By: Douglas Knight http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/05/the_conspiracy_.html#comment-419475 Douglas Knight Thu, 10 May 2007 03:34:48 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/05/the-conspiracy-glitch.html#comment-419475 My impression is that the evidence for ESP is extremely similar to the evidence that a minimum wage affects employment. I think the evidence for cold fusion and the effect of health care on health are pretty similar, too. Why does consensus respond differently? My impression is that the evidence for ESP is extremely similar to the evidence that a minimum wage affects employment. I think the evidence for cold fusion and the effect of health care on health are pretty similar, too. Why does consensus respond differently?

]]> By: Robin Hanson http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/05/the_conspiracy_.html#comment-419474 Robin Hanson Wed, 09 May 2007 18:20:55 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/05/the-conspiracy-glitch.html#comment-419474 Eliezer, do non-mainstream views make one have to argue more than mainstream views? If so, this would be a proposed cause of an anti-mainstream bias. Eliezer, do non-mainstream views make one have to argue more than mainstream views? If so, this would be a proposed cause of an anti-mainstream bias.

]]> By: Eliezer Yudkowsky http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/05/the_conspiracy_.html#comment-419473 Eliezer Yudkowsky Wed, 09 May 2007 15:59:05 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/05/the-conspiracy-glitch.html#comment-419473 There's almost certainly a bias toward believing more strongly that which we have to argue with other people. There’s almost certainly a bias toward believing more strongly that which we have to argue with other people.

]]> By: Robin Hanson http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/05/the_conspiracy_.html#comment-419472 Robin Hanson Wed, 09 May 2007 14:21:27 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/05/the-conspiracy-glitch.html#comment-419472 Hal, ESP, cold fusion, etc. are not theories about lies, so it seems you reject the lie bias theory proposed. Do you propose a "non-mainstream" bias, that we suffer more from confirmation bias when considering non-mainstream views? Hal, ESP, cold fusion, etc. are not theories about lies, so it seems you reject the lie bias theory proposed. Do you propose a “non-mainstream” bias, that we suffer more from confirmation bias when considering non-mainstream views?

]]> By: Hal Finney http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/05/the_conspiracy_.html#comment-419471 Hal Finney Wed, 09 May 2007 14:12:17 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/05/the-conspiracy-glitch.html#comment-419471 I think you can at least generalize to a large spectrum of non-mainstream views. I've known smart people who believed in ESP, cold fusion, abiogenic oil, Drexlerian nanotech, non-HIV AIDS, Peak Oil catastrophism, and more. Most of them not only believe that the evidence on balance leans their way, but that the evidence is overwhelmingly in their favor and that the mainstream is being stubborn and close-minded. It shades into conspiracy but often doesn't cross that line. And of course the other side of the coin is that some conspiracy theories turn out to be rather plausible. Was there more than a lone gunman involved in Kennedy's assassination? Congress found that it was likely, but it is still widely considered the canonical conspiracy theory. I think you can at least generalize to a large spectrum of non-mainstream views. I’ve known smart people who believed in ESP, cold fusion, abiogenic oil, Drexlerian nanotech, non-HIV AIDS, Peak Oil catastrophism, and more. Most of them not only believe that the evidence on balance leans their way, but that the evidence is overwhelmingly in their favor and that the mainstream is being stubborn and close-minded. It shades into conspiracy but often doesn’t cross that line.

And of course the other side of the coin is that some conspiracy theories turn out to be rather plausible. Was there more than a lone gunman involved in Kennedy’s assassination? Congress found that it was likely, but it is still widely considered the canonical conspiracy theory.

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