Comments on: RAND Health Insurance Experiment http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/05/rand_health_ins.html Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future. Tue, 16 Mar 2010 09:10:23 -0400 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: We don’t wanna hear it « It’s Not Hard… but it could be http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/05/rand_health_ins.html#comment-437095 We don’t wanna hear it « It’s Not Hard… but it could be Mon, 30 Nov 2009 16:31:29 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/05/rand-health-insurance-experiment.html#comment-437095 [...] their ineffectiveness regarding the health of the American populace as a whole. See the evidence here and here, for instance. I have been in medicine for 38 years, and I was unfamiliar with [...] [...] their ineffectiveness regarding the health of the American populace as a whole. See the evidence here and here, for instance. I have been in medicine for 38 years, and I was unfamiliar with [...]

]]> By: Praying for a Solution « The Ruling Zeitgeist http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/05/rand_health_ins.html#comment-436823 Praying for a Solution « The Ruling Zeitgeist Thu, 26 Nov 2009 13:41:23 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/05/rand-health-insurance-experiment.html#comment-436823 [...] going to a witch doctor is just as worthwhile as going to the family doctor. And if we take a Hansonian view of heathcare, that margin is at a level lower than we [...] [...] going to a witch doctor is just as worthwhile as going to the family doctor. And if we take a Hansonian view of heathcare, that margin is at a level lower than we [...]

]]> By: The Perfect Healthcare Plan (And Why We’ll Never Get It) « Intellectual Detox http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/05/rand_health_ins.html#comment-432569 The Perfect Healthcare Plan (And Why We’ll Never Get It) « Intellectual Detox Thu, 10 Sep 2009 06:22:41 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/05/rand-health-insurance-experiment.html#comment-432569 [...] Yet numerous studies have shown that a large amount of healthcare simply has no value-add. A RAND study that compared people who had everything paid for versus people who had to pay for care out of [...] [...] Yet numerous studies have shown that a large amount of healthcare simply has no value-add. A RAND study that compared people who had everything paid for versus people who had to pay for care out of [...]

]]> By: jebs house http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/05/rand_health_ins.html#comment-419566 jebs house Wed, 23 Apr 2008 08:44:17 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/05/rand-health-insurance-experiment.html#comment-419566 I'm not sure what the hold-up is... maybe they have re-thought their stance on how this is going to actually make the company any money. Or perhaps their lawyers pointed out the liability of providing agents a platform to stick their feet in their mouth. Whatever it is, it's hardly something I'd claim as being "Well done". www.jebshouse.com I’m not sure what the hold-up is… maybe they have re-thought their stance on how this is going to actually make the company any money. Or perhaps their lawyers pointed out the liability of providing agents a platform to stick their feet in their mouth. Whatever it is, it’s hardly something I’d claim as being “Well done”.
http://www.jebshouse.com

]]> By: Hopefully Anonymous http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/05/rand_health_ins.html#comment-419565 Hopefully Anonymous Fri, 13 Jul 2007 17:18:16 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/05/rand-health-insurance-experiment.html#comment-419565 I agree with anon. Anecdotal evidence serves almost entirely as appeal to (confirmation) bias. There is an alternative to running a new, improved RAND study. It's to say "I intuitively think" or "in my unsubstantiated opinion". That way one is appropriately labeling a model or hypothesis that hasn't been shown to be supported by quality empirical methods. I agree with anon. Anecdotal evidence serves almost entirely as appeal to (confirmation) bias. There is an alternative to running a new, improved RAND study. It’s to say “I intuitively think” or “in my unsubstantiated opinion”. That way one is appropriately labeling a model or hypothesis that hasn’t been shown to be supported by quality empirical methods.

]]> By: anon http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/05/rand_health_ins.html#comment-419564 anon Fri, 13 Jul 2007 16:54:07 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/05/rand-health-insurance-experiment.html#comment-419564 Because anyone can find an anecdote which supports his view. If you go searching for evidence to support your view and find it, it will only serve to further increase your belief in the view you set out to prove. Statistics is about rising above anecdotal evidence. I have no doubt that anecdotal evidence contributes to disagreements about the effectiveness of medicine... it's because people actually think that anecdotal evidence is evidence. "Do you know of a way to think about the causes of such disagreements that doesn't involve anecdotes?" Yes, people not understanding statistics and misinterpreting study results. Because anyone can find an anecdote which supports his view. If you go searching for evidence to support your view and find it, it will only serve to further increase your belief in the view you set out to prove. Statistics is about rising above anecdotal evidence.

I have no doubt that anecdotal evidence contributes to disagreements about the effectiveness of medicine… it’s because people actually think that anecdotal evidence is evidence.

“Do you know of a way to think about the causes of such disagreements that doesn’t involve anecdotes?”

Yes, people not understanding statistics and misinterpreting study results.

]]> By: Peter McCluskey http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/05/rand_health_ins.html#comment-419563 Peter McCluskey Fri, 13 Jul 2007 16:40:32 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/05/rand-health-insurance-experiment.html#comment-419563 Anon, what evidence is there that using anecdotal evidence will "surely" cause confirmation bias? How do alternative approaches (short of running a new, improved Rand study) reduce the problem of confirmation bias? Part of the reason for my comment was to provide a hint about why people disagree about the effectiveness of medicine. Do you know of a way to think about the causes of such disagreements that doesn't involve anecdotes? Anon, what evidence is there that using anecdotal evidence will “surely” cause confirmation bias? How do alternative approaches (short of running a new, improved Rand study) reduce the problem of confirmation bias?
Part of the reason for my comment was to provide a hint about why people disagree about the effectiveness of medicine. Do you know of a way to think about the causes of such disagreements that doesn’t involve anecdotes?

]]> By: Hopefully Anonymous http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/05/rand_health_ins.html#comment-419562 Hopefully Anonymous Fri, 13 Jul 2007 11:27:03 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/05/rand-health-insurance-experiment.html#comment-419562 Anon, in all serious, good thread policing. *thumbs up*. Anon, in all serious, good thread policing. *thumbs up*.

]]> By: Robin Hanson http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/05/rand_health_ins.html#comment-419561 Robin Hanson Fri, 13 Jul 2007 10:30:20 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/05/rand-health-insurance-experiment.html#comment-419561 Anon, I would not claim <i>exactly zero</i> marginal effects of medicine. With limited statistical power, one can just infer a small effect, but not a zero effect. Anon, I would not claim exactly zero marginal effects of medicine. With limited statistical power, one can just infer a small effect, but not a zero effect.

]]> By: anon http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/05/rand_health_ins.html#comment-419560 anon Fri, 13 Jul 2007 07:00:02 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/05/rand-health-insurance-experiment.html#comment-419560 Robin, I see that you only responded to part of Ash's concern "It's not clear what health effects would be expected in a young population with three to five years of care." ... probably biased by your own views of medicine... you are completely ignoring other interpretations and limitations of the Rand study in favor of using the study to confirm your own views. I also see that you dismissed Jor's concerns in regards to statistical power on account of your belief of the existence of biases. Why don't you think a little bit more about the statistical concern raised instead of side-stepping his argument by bringing up the existence of biases. The existence of the biases you bring up is ONE possible explanation, but there are other possible explanations. You really shouldn't dismiss them so quickly. How can you be so sure you are right? What biases must you suffer from? Two people can have rational explanations for the same phenomenom... the unbiased person will realize that and admit that the evidence is not definitive. Robin,

I see that you only responded to part of Ash’s concern

“It’s not clear what health effects would be expected in a young population with three to five years of care.”

… probably biased by your own views of medicine… you are completely ignoring other interpretations and limitations of the Rand study in favor of using the study to confirm your own views.

I also see that you dismissed Jor’s concerns in regards to statistical power on account of your belief of the existence of biases. Why don’t you think a little bit more about the statistical concern raised instead of side-stepping his argument by bringing up the existence of biases. The existence of the biases you bring up is ONE possible explanation, but there are other possible explanations. You really shouldn’t dismiss them so quickly.

How can you be so sure you are right? What biases must you suffer from?

Two people can have rational explanations for the same phenomenom… the unbiased person will realize that and admit that the evidence is not definitive.

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