Comments on: Myth of the Rational Academic http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/05/myth_of_the_rat.html Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future. Sat, 11 Feb 2012 23:23:58 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.3 By: Doug S. http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/05/myth_of_the_rat.html#comment-419798 Doug S. Fri, 04 May 2007 15:20:18 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/05/myth-of-the-rational-academic.html#comment-419798 Voting isn't irrational behavior. There is <a href="http://select.nytimes.com/search/restricted/article?res=F60910FE3D5A0C758CDDA80994DD404482" rel="nofollow">a payoff for voting</a>: you get to signal to others that you are a responsible citizen. Voting isn’t irrational behavior. There is a payoff for voting: you get to signal to others that you are a responsible citizen.

]]> By: Carl Shulman http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/05/myth_of_the_rat.html#comment-419797 Carl Shulman Wed, 02 May 2007 03:19:51 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/05/myth-of-the-rational-academic.html#comment-419797 Hal, Do you mean irrational for an individual with purely selfish preferences? A bad economic policy or war can cost trillions of dollars or many thousands of lives. If you are in a swing state during a close American presidential election (or better yet, an early presidential primary), you might have a one in a million chance of changing the outcome for the better, for an expected net benefit to others of over $1 million. If you are even somewhat altruistic, and don't know of much more effective charities to expend energy on, then this could be worth a half hour of your time. Hal,

Do you mean irrational for an individual with purely selfish preferences? A bad economic policy or war can cost trillions of dollars or many thousands of lives. If you are in a swing state during a close American presidential election (or better yet, an early presidential primary), you might have a one in a million chance of changing the outcome for the better, for an expected net benefit to others of over $1 million. If you are even somewhat altruistic, and don’t know of much more effective charities to expend energy on, then this could be worth a half hour of your time.

]]> By: Hal Finney http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/05/myth_of_the_rat.html#comment-419796 Hal Finney Wed, 02 May 2007 02:57:22 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/05/myth-of-the-rational-academic.html#comment-419796 One might also argue that the phrase "rational voter" is an oxymoron, since voting is irrational, at least at the national level. The odds of a vote making a difference are too small to overcome the costs of voting, on virtually any plausible assignment of utilities. One might also argue that the phrase “rational voter” is an oxymoron, since voting is irrational, at least at the national level. The odds of a vote making a difference are too small to overcome the costs of voting, on virtually any plausible assignment of utilities.

]]> By: Barkley Rosser http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/05/myth_of_the_rat.html#comment-419795 Barkley Rosser Tue, 01 May 2007 19:19:50 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/05/myth-of-the-rational-academic.html#comment-419795 Well, the sheepish cover is pretty cool, whatever Tyler thinks. Well, the sheepish cover is pretty cool, whatever Tyler thinks.

]]> By: _Gi http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/05/myth_of_the_rat.html#comment-419794 _Gi Tue, 01 May 2007 17:40:29 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/05/myth-of-the-rational-academic.html#comment-419794 Even most believers in astrology realize that conventional science does not regard astrology as reality-based discipline. Moreover, open belief in astrology is contrary to wide-spread theological doctrines. Perhaps it is simply not popular enough to be a factor. Also, don't forget Nancy. Even most believers in astrology realize that conventional science does not regard astrology as reality-based discipline. Moreover, open belief in astrology is contrary to wide-spread theological doctrines. Perhaps it is simply not popular enough to be a factor.
Also, don’t forget Nancy.

]]> By: michael vassar http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/05/myth_of_the_rat.html#comment-419793 michael vassar Tue, 01 May 2007 17:15:08 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/05/myth-of-the-rational-academic.html#comment-419793 I think that the last sentence of this post is terribly important. Those who don't get the point of overcoming bias, and even those who can, simply can't see how much it costs us to live in the world as it is, relative to what the world would be like if a much higher standard of rationality is typical. People become blaze. They live in a world saturated with irrational disagreement and cannot even imagine what it would be to live in a world of factual agreement. The first two verses of "Imagine" come to mind. OTOH, Tyler didn't say he was surprised by the rationality of the public, but rather by the greater rationality of political decision makers than of the public, for instance, regarding astrology. I think it is fair for him to be confident in his rationality when it agrees with the actions taken by political decision makers and disagrees with those of the public. Are you really suggesting that we should take astrology more seriously? I think that the last sentence of this post is terribly important. Those who don’t get the point of overcoming bias, and even those who can, simply can’t see how much it costs us to live in the world as it is, relative to what the world would be like if a much higher standard of rationality is typical. People become blaze. They live in a world saturated with irrational disagreement and cannot even imagine what it would be to live in a world of factual agreement.
The first two verses of “Imagine” come to mind.

OTOH, Tyler didn’t say he was surprised by the rationality of the public, but rather by the greater rationality of political decision makers than of the public, for instance, regarding astrology. I think it is fair for him to be confident in his rationality when it agrees with the actions taken by political decision makers and disagrees with those of the public. Are you really suggesting that we should take astrology more seriously?

]]> By: Hal Finney http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/05/myth_of_the_rat.html#comment-419792 Hal Finney Tue, 01 May 2007 17:05:04 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/05/myth-of-the-rational-academic.html#comment-419792 Perhaps Tyler's point can be expressed in more neutral terms: there are certain widespread beliefs, like belief in astrology, which are rejected by the political system. Whether astrology is irrational or not it still points to an inconsistency if the book argues that politicians are driven to reflect the public's views. Why do politicians profess belief in God but not in astrology? It sounds like the book does not sufficiently investigate this kind of distinction, in Tyler's view. Perhaps Tyler’s point can be expressed in more neutral terms: there are certain widespread beliefs, like belief in astrology, which are rejected by the political system. Whether astrology is irrational or not it still points to an inconsistency if the book argues that politicians are driven to reflect the public’s views. Why do politicians profess belief in God but not in astrology? It sounds like the book does not sufficiently investigate this kind of distinction, in Tyler’s view.

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