http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/05/free_money_goin.html Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future. Sun, 12 Feb 2012 02:20:49 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.3 http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/05/free_money_goin.html#comment-418997 Chris Masse Thu, 31 May 2007 08:07:31 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/05/free-money-going-fast.html#comment-418997 Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? - by Koleman Strumpf http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/31/is-there-manipulation-in-the-hillary-clinton-intrade-market/ Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? – by Koleman Strumpf
http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/31/is-there-manipulation-in-the-hillary-clinton-intrade-market/

]]> http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/05/free_money_goin.html#comment-418996 Robin Hanson Wed, 30 May 2007 22:23:19 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/05/free-money-going-fast.html#comment-418996 Mike, you are right; I have corrected the error. Mike, you are right; I have corrected the error.

]]> http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/05/free_money_goin.html#comment-418995 Mike Linksvayer Wed, 30 May 2007 21:28:35 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/05/free-money-going-fast.html#comment-418995 I read that as saying 77% chance of winning presidency if she wins the nomination, not "a 77% chance of winning the Democratic party nomination." I read that as saying 77% chance of winning presidency if she wins the nomination, not “a 77% chance of winning the Democratic party nomination.”

]]> http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/05/free_money_goin.html#comment-418994 Robin Hanson Wed, 30 May 2007 21:18:18 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/05/free-money-going-fast.html#comment-418994 Nick, see point 3b in Eric's post. Nick, see point 3b in Eric’s post.

]]> http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/05/free_money_goin.html#comment-418993 Nick Bostrom Wed, 30 May 2007 21:05:43 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/05/free-money-going-fast.html#comment-418993 She is currently trading at 51.5%. The history graph at Intrade seems to show that she has never had more than about 58% of winning the nomination, and that was in late 2006. She never seems to have been much above 53% in 2007 so far. She is currently trading at 51.5%. The history graph at Intrade seems to show that she has never had more than about 58% of winning the nomination, and that was in late 2006. She never seems to have been much above 53% in 2007 so far.

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