Comments on: Arrogance as Virtue http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/05/arrogance_as_vi.html Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future. Sat, 11 Feb 2012 23:23:58 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.3 By: Robin Hanson http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/05/arrogance_as_vi.html#comment-418999 Robin Hanson Wed, 30 May 2007 10:59:16 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/05/arrogance-as-virtue.html#comment-418999 Stuart, yes prediction markets can be far from perfect, and yes overconfidence may distort the choice of topics. Stuart, yes prediction markets can be far from perfect, and yes overconfidence may distort the choice of topics.

]]> By: Stuart Armstrong http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/05/arrogance_as_vi.html#comment-418998 Stuart Armstrong Wed, 30 May 2007 10:36:04 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/05/arrogance-as-virtue.html#comment-418998 This post has made me aware of a personal bias: I am biased against anything that makes claims of perfection. I felt uncomfortable with prediction markets (and other similar, libertarian ideas) because of their claim to be the best possible solution in every possible case. Once I've seen the flaws in prediction markets (and other ideas) it somehow makes them more real, and I'm far more willing to accept them or compare them honestly with the alternatives. Returning to the subject of the post: This also suggest that people who run prediction markets will be tempted to make the issues that are betted on more attractive to the overconfident. More convoluted, perhaps, or more random (so that people can imagine patterns where there are none). This post has made me aware of a personal bias: I am biased against anything that makes claims of perfection. I felt uncomfortable with prediction markets (and other similar, libertarian ideas) because of their claim to be the best possible solution in every possible case. Once I’ve seen the flaws in prediction markets (and other ideas) it somehow makes them more real, and I’m far more willing to accept them or compare them honestly with the alternatives.

Returning to the subject of the post:
This also suggest that people who run prediction markets will be tempted to make the issues that are betted on more attractive to the overconfident. More convoluted, perhaps, or more random (so that people can imagine patterns where there are none).

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