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	<title>Comments on: Who Are The God Experts?</title>
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	<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/03/who_are_the_god.html</link>
	<description>Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future.</description>
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		<title>By: Peter Mexbacher</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/03/who_are_the_god.html#comment-421284</link>
		<dc:creator>Peter Mexbacher</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 17 Mar 2007 16:52:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/03/who-are-the-god-experts.html#comment-421284</guid>
		<description>What begs the question is this:

&gt;Using Swinburne&#039;s distinctions, we could say that an &quot;atheist&quot; is someone who &gt;thinks that &quot;no reason&quot; is a better answer to this &quot;fundamental question&quot; and a &gt;&quot;theist&quot; is someone who thinks &quot;God&quot; is a better answer

What answer is God? If we follow that the majority of those who posit God only believe in a first mover, a creator, but not someone who influences our daily lives, the word God is empty of any meaning; a word shell which means essentially the same thing as &quot;no-god&quot;.

Only an active God would be &quot;of use&quot; to people - and positing such a God is indeed at odds with science, and leads to a path of darkness.


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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>What begs the question is this:</p>
<p>>Using Swinburne&#8217;s distinctions, we could say that an &#8220;atheist&#8221; is someone who >thinks that &#8220;no reason&#8221; is a better answer to this &#8220;fundamental question&#8221; and a >&#8221;theist&#8221; is someone who thinks &#8220;God&#8221; is a better answer</p>
<p>What answer is God? If we follow that the majority of those who posit God only believe in a first mover, a creator, but not someone who influences our daily lives, the word God is empty of any meaning; a word shell which means essentially the same thing as &#8220;no-god&#8221;.</p>
<p>Only an active God would be &#8220;of use&#8221; to people &#8211; and positing such a God is indeed at odds with science, and leads to a path of darkness.</p>
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		<title>By: Alan Crowe</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/03/who_are_the_god.html#comment-421283</link>
		<dc:creator>Alan Crowe</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 12 Mar 2007 18:38:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/03/who-are-the-god-experts.html#comment-421283</guid>
		<description>Robin asks which criteria should count how much in choosing
&quot;the real experts&quot;?

Dawkins ask whether theology is a waste of time. This
question does not fit the usual frame work of the &quot;choose an
expert&quot; problem.

In the usual framework there is a family of problems and a
gold standard. The competing experts answer yes or no to
problems in the family and for some of the problems enough
gold is found to pay for the unveiling of the true
answer. Sometimes yes, sometimes no, the true answers permit
the chooser to score the experts. Who said yes when the
answer was no? Who said no when the answer was yes? Who
passed?

Theologians are perhaps important people. One faces a moral
dilemma and hopes that a theologian can offer guidance about
God&#039;s wishes. One would like a gold standard by which one
can check who is the wisest theologian. Imagine an
expedition to Hell. One surveys a 100 inmates and returns
with valuable data. Comparing what the dead really did with
what theologians say about sin offers a basis for choosing
the theologian most in touch with God&#039;s will.

Some people will feel that the idea of an expedition to Hell
is childish and doesn&#039;t take religion seriously. Others will
take the exact opposite point of view. This is the point at
which they decide that religion is a word game without
referents and refuse to play.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Robin asks which criteria should count how much in choosing<br />
&#8220;the real experts&#8221;?</p>
<p>Dawkins ask whether theology is a waste of time. This<br />
question does not fit the usual frame work of the &#8220;choose an<br />
expert&#8221; problem.</p>
<p>In the usual framework there is a family of problems and a<br />
gold standard. The competing experts answer yes or no to<br />
problems in the family and for some of the problems enough<br />
gold is found to pay for the unveiling of the true<br />
answer. Sometimes yes, sometimes no, the true answers permit<br />
the chooser to score the experts. Who said yes when the<br />
answer was no? Who said no when the answer was yes? Who<br />
passed?</p>
<p>Theologians are perhaps important people. One faces a moral<br />
dilemma and hopes that a theologian can offer guidance about<br />
God&#8217;s wishes. One would like a gold standard by which one<br />
can check who is the wisest theologian. Imagine an<br />
expedition to Hell. One surveys a 100 inmates and returns<br />
with valuable data. Comparing what the dead really did with<br />
what theologians say about sin offers a basis for choosing<br />
the theologian most in touch with God&#8217;s will.</p>
<p>Some people will feel that the idea of an expedition to Hell<br />
is childish and doesn&#8217;t take religion seriously. Others will<br />
take the exact opposite point of view. This is the point at<br />
which they decide that religion is a word game without<br />
referents and refuse to play.</p>
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		<title>By: Matthew</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/03/who_are_the_god.html#comment-421282</link>
		<dc:creator>Matthew</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 11 Mar 2007 05:16:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/03/who-are-the-god-experts.html#comment-421282</guid>
		<description>Robin, here&#039;s a quick follow-up: By &quot;intervening,&quot; I have in mind things like answering prayers (helping my basketball team win, etc.) post-&quot;creation.&quot; I take it that even a deist allows that God set up the conditions of the world (the laws of physics, free will if there be such a thing, etc.). &quot;Abandoned&quot; seems to imply a moral failure (which might be closer to the relationship of the &quot;demiurge&quot; of Gnosticism to the creation).
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Robin, here&#8217;s a quick follow-up: By &#8220;intervening,&#8221; I have in mind things like answering prayers (helping my basketball team win, etc.) post-&#8221;creation.&#8221; I take it that even a deist allows that God set up the conditions of the world (the laws of physics, free will if there be such a thing, etc.). &#8220;Abandoned&#8221; seems to imply a moral failure (which might be closer to the relationship of the &#8220;demiurge&#8221; of Gnosticism to the creation).</p>
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		<title>By: TGGP</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/03/who_are_the_god.html#comment-421281</link>
		<dc:creator>TGGP</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 11 Mar 2007 03:56:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/03/who-are-the-god-experts.html#comment-421281</guid>
		<description>Perhaps one can only be a God-expert when you are certified as such by God. On the other hand, before I admitted to myself I was an atheist I tried to salvage my belief in God by having him/it resemble nothing so much as H.P. Lovecraft&#039;s Azathoth, whom most would not like to be certified as anything by.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Perhaps one can only be a God-expert when you are certified as such by God. On the other hand, before I admitted to myself I was an atheist I tried to salvage my belief in God by having him/it resemble nothing so much as H.P. Lovecraft&#8217;s Azathoth, whom most would not like to be certified as anything by.</p>
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		<title>By: Hal Finney</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/03/who_are_the_god.html#comment-421280</link>
		<dc:creator>Hal Finney</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 11 Mar 2007 01:52:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/03/who-are-the-god-experts.html#comment-421280</guid>
		<description>Actually come to think of it I can imagine someone writing a book purporting to prove the existence of God who is not himself a believer, and I imagine it has happened on occasion. Either he is trying to convince himself, or he is trying to convince and impress others with the depth of his belief.

Nick, suppose that there is controversy about an issue, that you have weighed both sides and decided that on balance, one side is more convincing. Is it really right to promote that side, present arguments in its favor and rebut arguments against it? Does that lead people to the truth? Or wouldn&#039;t it be better to present both sides as skillfully as you can and let people weigh them and judge for themselves which side is right? In this way you can improve your own accuracy by letting yourself be swayed by how other people interpret the arguments you have assembled.

In fact I could imagine someone writing a book where the first half was an attempt to present the case for a particular position, and the second half presented the opposition case against that position. You could even do one of those printing and binding tricks where you turn the book upside down and you see the opposite side as though it is the front of a new book. Has anyone heard of a book like this?
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Actually come to think of it I can imagine someone writing a book purporting to prove the existence of God who is not himself a believer, and I imagine it has happened on occasion. Either he is trying to convince himself, or he is trying to convince and impress others with the depth of his belief.</p>
<p>Nick, suppose that there is controversy about an issue, that you have weighed both sides and decided that on balance, one side is more convincing. Is it really right to promote that side, present arguments in its favor and rebut arguments against it? Does that lead people to the truth? Or wouldn&#8217;t it be better to present both sides as skillfully as you can and let people weigh them and judge for themselves which side is right? In this way you can improve your own accuracy by letting yourself be swayed by how other people interpret the arguments you have assembled.</p>
<p>In fact I could imagine someone writing a book where the first half was an attempt to present the case for a particular position, and the second half presented the opposition case against that position. You could even do one of those printing and binding tricks where you turn the book upside down and you see the opposite side as though it is the front of a new book. Has anyone heard of a book like this?</p>
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		<title>By: Nick Tarleton</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/03/who_are_the_god.html#comment-421279</link>
		<dc:creator>Nick Tarleton</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 10 Mar 2007 22:49:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/03/who-are-the-god-experts.html#comment-421279</guid>
		<description>Michael V, presumably you say that because you see belief in God as wrong and unjustified by rationality. I tend to agree with that much, but it seems your way of thinking would mean that anyone who believes anything that turns out to be false or irrational isn&#039;t actually &#039;believing&#039; it. Something just seems absurd about totally redefining &#039;belief&#039; to only include Bayesian beliefs. Perhaps we need a different word - &#039;Bayeslief&#039;? &#039;Bbelief&#039;?

Hal, I think that it comes down to people&#039;s reasons for writing books. For one, they want to impress people, and it&#039;s much easier to write an impressive case for something you believe in (plus you avoid the guilt of lying.) Much more than that, they want to persuade people of their belief because they see people believing in the truth as good. I don&#039;t think it&#039;s a sign of bias at all.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Michael V, presumably you say that because you see belief in God as wrong and unjustified by rationality. I tend to agree with that much, but it seems your way of thinking would mean that anyone who believes anything that turns out to be false or irrational isn&#8217;t actually &#8216;believing&#8217; it. Something just seems absurd about totally redefining &#8216;belief&#8217; to only include Bayesian beliefs. Perhaps we need a different word &#8211; &#8216;Bayeslief&#8217;? &#8216;Bbelief&#8217;?</p>
<p>Hal, I think that it comes down to people&#8217;s reasons for writing books. For one, they want to impress people, and it&#8217;s much easier to write an impressive case for something you believe in (plus you avoid the guilt of lying.) Much more than that, they want to persuade people of their belief because they see people believing in the truth as good. I don&#8217;t think it&#8217;s a sign of bias at all.</p>
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		<title>By: Robin Hanson</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/03/who_are_the_god.html#comment-421278</link>
		<dc:creator>Robin Hanson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 10 Mar 2007 20:34:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/03/who-are-the-god-experts.html#comment-421278</guid>
		<description>Matthew, am not reading that; just copied definition from google.  A god who arranged the initial conditions of the universe to get the specific details he wanted in my life would be &quot;intervening&quot; as far as I am concerned.

Byrne, &quot;ignostic&quot; means something different than what I want.

Hal, excellent question.

</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Matthew, am not reading that; just copied definition from google.  A god who arranged the initial conditions of the universe to get the specific details he wanted in my life would be &#8220;intervening&#8221; as far as I am concerned.</p>
<p>Byrne, &#8220;ignostic&#8221; means something different than what I want.</p>
<p>Hal, excellent question.</p>
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		<title>By: Hal Finney</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/03/who_are_the_god.html#comment-421277</link>
		<dc:creator>Hal Finney</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 10 Mar 2007 20:13:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/03/who-are-the-god-experts.html#comment-421277</guid>
		<description>Michael Ruse is quoted above as saying, &quot;The God Delusion makes me embarrassed to be an atheist, and the McGraths show why.&quot; That&#039;s very much to his credit, that although he agrees with the conclusion of Dawkins&#039; book, he disagrees with the arguments. You don&#039;t often get people willing to make these kinds of public statements that undercut arguments in favor of their beliefs.

Sounds like McGrath himself is a theist, unfortunately, so his book is arguing for a conclusion he believes in, as did Dawkins. And of course, as is true for virtually 100% of books every published. Can you imagine a book arguing page after page for the existence of God, written by someone who doesn&#039;t believe in God? Or vice versa? Is it a sign of bias, that we never see that?
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Michael Ruse is quoted above as saying, &#8220;The God Delusion makes me embarrassed to be an atheist, and the McGraths show why.&#8221; That&#8217;s very much to his credit, that although he agrees with the conclusion of Dawkins&#8217; book, he disagrees with the arguments. You don&#8217;t often get people willing to make these kinds of public statements that undercut arguments in favor of their beliefs.</p>
<p>Sounds like McGrath himself is a theist, unfortunately, so his book is arguing for a conclusion he believes in, as did Dawkins. And of course, as is true for virtually 100% of books every published. Can you imagine a book arguing page after page for the existence of God, written by someone who doesn&#8217;t believe in God? Or vice versa? Is it a sign of bias, that we never see that?</p>
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		<title>By: Eliezer Yudkowsky</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/03/who_are_the_god.html#comment-421276</link>
		<dc:creator>Eliezer Yudkowsky</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 10 Mar 2007 19:27:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/03/who-are-the-god-experts.html#comment-421276</guid>
		<description>You know, the flat-Earth theory wasn&#039;t really &lt;i&gt;wrong&lt;/i&gt;, because... um... hold on a second... there&#039;s a difference between believing that the Earth has a flat shape in a &lt;i&gt;scientific&lt;/i&gt; sense, and the emotions we experience on seeing the apparent two-dimensionality quality of the ground.  In fact, the flat-Earth theory is really an internal aesthetic experience rather than an external prediction, so mere observation doesn&#039;t have anything to say about it.  Science cannot prove or disprove the flat Earth!

The ultimate distinguishing characteristic of a rationalist is that there comes a point where the rationalist shrugs and says &quot;Guess I was wrong,&quot; instead of coming up with another damn stupid excuse.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You know, the flat-Earth theory wasn&#8217;t really <i>wrong</i>, because&#8230; um&#8230; hold on a second&#8230; there&#8217;s a difference between believing that the Earth has a flat shape in a <i>scientific</i> sense, and the emotions we experience on seeing the apparent two-dimensionality quality of the ground.  In fact, the flat-Earth theory is really an internal aesthetic experience rather than an external prediction, so mere observation doesn&#8217;t have anything to say about it.  Science cannot prove or disprove the flat Earth!</p>
<p>The ultimate distinguishing characteristic of a rationalist is that there comes a point where the rationalist shrugs and says &#8220;Guess I was wrong,&#8221; instead of coming up with another damn stupid excuse.</p>
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		<title>By: Nato Welch</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/03/who_are_the_god.html#comment-421275</link>
		<dc:creator>Nato Welch</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 10 Mar 2007 19:06:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/03/who-are-the-god-experts.html#comment-421275</guid>
		<description>In the book, Dawkins cites Lee Smolin&#039;s &lt;a href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fecund_universes&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Fecund Universes&lt;/a&gt; theory, a model which proposes black holes as a potential reproductive mechanism for universes themselves, and the universal physical constants as &quot;genes&quot; that are tuned in a process resembling &quot;cosmological natural selection&quot; (minus the destructive selection part).

The model grew out of an attempt to explain why the physical constants seemed conspicuously friendly to the development of black holes in our universe, but it turns out the same friendliness applies to the development of biological life.

In &lt;a href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biocosm&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Biocosm&lt;/a&gt;, James Gardner asks the begged question: if the &quot;genes&quot; are being tuned, why do we insist that it&#039;s black holes they&#039;re tuning for, and not biology (or both)?

The &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.simulation-argument.com/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;simulation argument&lt;/a&gt; also suggests we might have something resembling a creator for our universe.

I absolutely agree, though, that our best arguments against Christian theology&#039;s claims are best directed not against the claim that a creator exists or is possible, but that the biblical Jehovah &lt;em&gt;isn&#039;t it&lt;/em&gt;.

Proposals for the term: Adeist, Condeist.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In the book, Dawkins cites Lee Smolin&#8217;s <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fecund_universes" rel="nofollow">Fecund Universes</a> theory, a model which proposes black holes as a potential reproductive mechanism for universes themselves, and the universal physical constants as &#8220;genes&#8221; that are tuned in a process resembling &#8220;cosmological natural selection&#8221; (minus the destructive selection part).</p>
<p>The model grew out of an attempt to explain why the physical constants seemed conspicuously friendly to the development of black holes in our universe, but it turns out the same friendliness applies to the development of biological life.</p>
<p>In <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biocosm" rel="nofollow">Biocosm</a>, James Gardner asks the begged question: if the &#8220;genes&#8221; are being tuned, why do we insist that it&#8217;s black holes they&#8217;re tuning for, and not biology (or both)?</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.simulation-argument.com/" rel="nofollow">simulation argument</a> also suggests we might have something resembling a creator for our universe.</p>
<p>I absolutely agree, though, that our best arguments against Christian theology&#8217;s claims are best directed not against the claim that a creator exists or is possible, but that the biblical Jehovah <em>isn&#8217;t it</em>.</p>
<p>Proposals for the term: Adeist, Condeist.</p>
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