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	<title>Comments on: Believing in Todd</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/03/believing_in_to.html/feed" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/03/believing_in_to.html</link>
	<description>Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future.</description>
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		<title>By: Neil C. Reinhardt</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/03/believing_in_to.html#comment-441198</link>
		<dc:creator>Neil C. Reinhardt</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 24 Jan 2010 02:52:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/03/believing-in-todd.html#comment-441198</guid>
		<description>So Robin, 

Why for your e-mail address does not work?

At least this one did not:  rhanson@gmn.edu

I wrote you an email about &quot;ViewQuakes&quot; and requested a response only to have it come back. So, PLEASE E-me at: religionsucks@webtv,net

THANKS

Neil 

&quot;A View Quacker&quot;

P.S. &quot;Reason&quot; helps a believer?  GIVE ME A BREAK!

Reason Child, is why MILLIONS &amp; MILLIONS &amp; MILLIONS or FORMER Christians have STOPPED believing in your
childish myth and become Atheists.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>So Robin, </p>
<p>Why for your e-mail address does not work?</p>
<p>At least this one did not:  <a href="mailto:rhanson@gmn.edu">rhanson@gmn.edu</a></p>
<p>I wrote you an email about &#8220;ViewQuakes&#8221; and requested a response only to have it come back. So, PLEASE E-me at: religionsucks@webtv,net</p>
<p>THANKS</p>
<p>Neil </p>
<p>&#8220;A View Quacker&#8221;</p>
<p>P.S. &#8220;Reason&#8221; helps a believer?  GIVE ME A BREAK!</p>
<p>Reason Child, is why MILLIONS &amp; MILLIONS &amp; MILLIONS or FORMER Christians have STOPPED believing in your<br />
childish myth and become Atheists.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Todd Dow</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/03/believing_in_to.html#comment-421032</link>
		<dc:creator>Todd Dow</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 19 Sep 2007 21:16:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/03/believing-in-todd.html#comment-421032</guid>
		<description>Hey Robin,

You make an interesting point, but I think it is flawed. You do present some strong reasons why Todd might not exist, but comparing Todd with God is not an apt approach to take. Todd is an individual within a concrete set of boundaries: the family home, with limited access to that space. Thus, the differing descriptions of one distinct physical individual would be sketchy to anyone investigating this case.

Religious believers, on the other hand, claim distinct experiences with different manifestations of God at different times and in different circumstances. These experiences do seem to show some consistency with the idea of God and thus, are not contradictory. The contradictions tend to come from the interpretations of these texts as done by the believers in their own situations.

As an example, all three monotheistic religions recognize Jesus:
- Judaism recognizes Jesus as a heretic (or a prophet, depending on who you talk to - I don&#039;t want to split hairs here though).
- Christianity recognizes Jesus as the Messiah.
- Islam recognizes Jesus as a major prophet.

Thus, there is some consensus around the main claims of Jesus. Does that mean that Jesus does or doesn&#039;t exist? No. The evidence isn&#039;t sufficient enough either way here.

So, all three faiths make mention of Jesus. They interpret him differently. Other dogmatic discussions occur for numerous other religious topics. Does disagreement mean that the subject doesn&#039;t exist? Not at all... in fact, based on the great deal of discussion and early source documentation pointing to the subject (God), I&#039;d argue that there is some strong justifications to believe.

Ultimately, the question becomes one of epistemology. And, with all things dealing with truth, we never can be too sure. As a Christian, reason helps me, but ultimately there is some level of faith involved. But, isn&#039;t faith also involved when you look at other worldviews?

Feel free to check out my blog (http://toddhdow.org/) for plenty more discussion on this topic.

Thanks and talk soon!

Todd Dow
http://toddhdow.org/

</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hey Robin,</p>
<p>You make an interesting point, but I think it is flawed. You do present some strong reasons why Todd might not exist, but comparing Todd with God is not an apt approach to take. Todd is an individual within a concrete set of boundaries: the family home, with limited access to that space. Thus, the differing descriptions of one distinct physical individual would be sketchy to anyone investigating this case.</p>
<p>Religious believers, on the other hand, claim distinct experiences with different manifestations of God at different times and in different circumstances. These experiences do seem to show some consistency with the idea of God and thus, are not contradictory. The contradictions tend to come from the interpretations of these texts as done by the believers in their own situations.</p>
<p>As an example, all three monotheistic religions recognize Jesus:<br />
- Judaism recognizes Jesus as a heretic (or a prophet, depending on who you talk to &#8211; I don&#8217;t want to split hairs here though).<br />
- Christianity recognizes Jesus as the Messiah.<br />
- Islam recognizes Jesus as a major prophet.</p>
<p>Thus, there is some consensus around the main claims of Jesus. Does that mean that Jesus does or doesn&#8217;t exist? No. The evidence isn&#8217;t sufficient enough either way here.</p>
<p>So, all three faiths make mention of Jesus. They interpret him differently. Other dogmatic discussions occur for numerous other religious topics. Does disagreement mean that the subject doesn&#8217;t exist? Not at all&#8230; in fact, based on the great deal of discussion and early source documentation pointing to the subject (God), I&#8217;d argue that there is some strong justifications to believe.</p>
<p>Ultimately, the question becomes one of epistemology. And, with all things dealing with truth, we never can be too sure. As a Christian, reason helps me, but ultimately there is some level of faith involved. But, isn&#8217;t faith also involved when you look at other worldviews?</p>
<p>Feel free to check out my blog (<a href="http://toddhdow.org/" rel="nofollow">http://toddhdow.org/</a>) for plenty more discussion on this topic.</p>
<p>Thanks and talk soon!</p>
<p>Todd Dow<br />
<a href="http://toddhdow.org/" rel="nofollow">http://toddhdow.org/</a></p>
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		<title>By: Richard Hollerith</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/03/believing_in_to.html#comment-421031</link>
		<dc:creator>Richard Hollerith</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 20 Mar 2007 00:23:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/03/believing-in-todd.html#comment-421031</guid>
		<description>Eliezer: no &lt;em&gt;Aha!&lt;/em&gt; for me this time.  For lovely &lt;em&gt;Aha!&lt;/em&gt;s &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.amazon.com/Moral-Animal-Robert-Wright/dp/0349107041&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;other &lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=&quot;http://yudkowsky.net/bayes/technical.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;times&lt;/a&gt;, my sincere thanks.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Eliezer: no <em>Aha!</em> for me this time.  For lovely <em>Aha!</em>s <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Moral-Animal-Robert-Wright/dp/0349107041" rel="nofollow">other </a> <a href="http://yudkowsky.net/bayes/technical.html" rel="nofollow">times</a>, my sincere thanks.</p>
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		<title>By: TGGP</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/03/believing_in_to.html#comment-421030</link>
		<dc:creator>TGGP</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Mar 2007 20:15:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/03/believing-in-todd.html#comment-421030</guid>
		<description>This might have gone on beyond what Robin wished it had, but I&#039;d like to note that my reaction to the lack of &quot;meaning&quot; in the universe (independent of the subjective beliefs of individuals), is not &quot;alas, woe and despair&quot;, just as we need not despair that there is no God.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This might have gone on beyond what Robin wished it had, but I&#8217;d like to note that my reaction to the lack of &#8220;meaning&#8221; in the universe (independent of the subjective beliefs of individuals), is not &#8220;alas, woe and despair&#8221;, just as we need not despair that there is no God.</p>
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		<title>By: simon</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/03/believing_in_to.html#comment-421029</link>
		<dc:creator>simon</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Mar 2007 17:48:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/03/believing-in-todd.html#comment-421029</guid>
		<description>Michael, ok, I don&#039;t really know much about the difference between analytic and continental philosophy, but if &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.anthropic-principle.com/preprints/beauty/synthesis.pdf&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;this paper by Nick&lt;/a&gt; is analytic philosophy (correct me if I&#039;m wrong) then I think I have a low opinion of analytic philosophy as well.

Eliezer, I am still suspicious that your different way of putting things may be an indicator of some real disagreement, it would be helpful if you actually wrote that paper to explain.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Michael, ok, I don&#8217;t really know much about the difference between analytic and continental philosophy, but if <a href="http://www.anthropic-principle.com/preprints/beauty/synthesis.pdf" rel="nofollow">this paper by Nick</a> is analytic philosophy (correct me if I&#8217;m wrong) then I think I have a low opinion of analytic philosophy as well.</p>
<p>Eliezer, I am still suspicious that your different way of putting things may be an indicator of some real disagreement, it would be helpful if you actually wrote that paper to explain.</p>
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		<title>By: Eliezer Yudkowsky</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/03/believing_in_to.html#comment-421028</link>
		<dc:creator>Eliezer Yudkowsky</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Mar 2007 16:20:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/03/believing-in-todd.html#comment-421028</guid>
		<description>Considering how long the comments have been getting, I&#039;m going to give up for now.  Simon, I agree with TGGP that there&#039;s no morality-stuff floating out there, but I think I reacted to this elementary epistemological realization in a perhaps different fashion than TGGP does - I said, &quot;Oops, I messed up my understanding of morality, how silly of me,&quot; instead of &quot;the universe is devoid of meaning, alas woe and despair&quot;.  That&#039;s what I was trying to convey by the &lt;i&gt;it all adds up to normality&lt;/i&gt; principle.

I guess you can just ignore the morality-as-computation stuff for now, that would probably take a paper to explain if I wanted to express it.  Nick, Robin, just because an opinion is comparatively briefly expressed doesn&#039;t mean it&#039;s a jump to a conclusion.  It can be something that was worked out over quite a long period, but heavily compressed.  I don&#039;t know &lt;i&gt;in advance&lt;/i&gt; what will or will not create an &lt;i&gt;Aha!&lt;/i&gt; experience in others - apparently this didn&#039;t, but it was still worth a shot.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Considering how long the comments have been getting, I&#8217;m going to give up for now.  Simon, I agree with TGGP that there&#8217;s no morality-stuff floating out there, but I think I reacted to this elementary epistemological realization in a perhaps different fashion than TGGP does &#8211; I said, &#8220;Oops, I messed up my understanding of morality, how silly of me,&#8221; instead of &#8220;the universe is devoid of meaning, alas woe and despair&#8221;.  That&#8217;s what I was trying to convey by the <i>it all adds up to normality</i> principle.</p>
<p>I guess you can just ignore the morality-as-computation stuff for now, that would probably take a paper to explain if I wanted to express it.  Nick, Robin, just because an opinion is comparatively briefly expressed doesn&#8217;t mean it&#8217;s a jump to a conclusion.  It can be something that was worked out over quite a long period, but heavily compressed.  I don&#8217;t know <i>in advance</i> what will or will not create an <i>Aha!</i> experience in others &#8211; apparently this didn&#8217;t, but it was still worth a shot.</p>
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		<title>By: Matthew C</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/03/believing_in_to.html#comment-421027</link>
		<dc:creator>Matthew C</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Mar 2007 16:12:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/03/believing-in-todd.html#comment-421027</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;There is no ultimate reality. Just reality. That&#039;s all there ever is.&lt;/i&gt;

Let me explain what I mean by &quot;ultimate reality&quot;.

For example last night I was dreaming and in that dream, a terrorist detonated a nuclear bomb in an airplane flying over Honolulu.  Fortunately, it was just a &quot;fizzle&quot;, so only a few tons of nuclear energy were released.

But then I woke up, and discovered that what I thought was reality was actually just me dreaming.

So in that sense, compared to the dream I was having, that dream was unreal, and this waking reality is more real (although perhaps not ultimately real).

In the same way, perhaps this seeming world we live in is itself similar to a dream.  In fact, Robin has speculated on the possibility that we are living in a computer simulation.  So if that is the case, it might be possible to discover that while still &quot;within&quot; the simulation.  That would be akin to the phenomena of lucid dreaming, where one is aware of the fact that one is dreaming while the dream is happening.

In that event, what we know of as our lives here would be similar to my dream, and ultimate reality would be something quite different.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>There is no ultimate reality. Just reality. That&#8217;s all there ever is.</i></p>
<p>Let me explain what I mean by &#8220;ultimate reality&#8221;.</p>
<p>For example last night I was dreaming and in that dream, a terrorist detonated a nuclear bomb in an airplane flying over Honolulu.  Fortunately, it was just a &#8220;fizzle&#8221;, so only a few tons of nuclear energy were released.</p>
<p>But then I woke up, and discovered that what I thought was reality was actually just me dreaming.</p>
<p>So in that sense, compared to the dream I was having, that dream was unreal, and this waking reality is more real (although perhaps not ultimately real).</p>
<p>In the same way, perhaps this seeming world we live in is itself similar to a dream.  In fact, Robin has speculated on the possibility that we are living in a computer simulation.  So if that is the case, it might be possible to discover that while still &#8220;within&#8221; the simulation.  That would be akin to the phenomena of lucid dreaming, where one is aware of the fact that one is dreaming while the dream is happening.</p>
<p>In that event, what we know of as our lives here would be similar to my dream, and ultimate reality would be something quite different.</p>
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		<title>By: michael vassar</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/03/believing_in_to.html#comment-421026</link>
		<dc:creator>michael vassar</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Mar 2007 14:55:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/03/believing-in-todd.html#comment-421026</guid>
		<description>It seems to me that while there is some truth to the point about outputs being normal, the case is fairly overstated.  Newtonian Gravity tells us that dense objects all fall at fairly similar speeds and move along parabolic trajectories.  More dramatically, measurement or artistic training, not to mention developmental physiology, tell us that children have very different physical proportions from adults.  Astoundingly in retrospect, these fairly simple observations were not made until the Renaissance.  Slightly careful observation tells us that the normal conclusions are wrong.  In economics this is often the case today, and many educated people still believe that government can basically dictate collective economic outcomes by, for instance, creating jobs for the unemployed, and almost everyone mis-predicted the outcomes of Milgram&#039;s authority experiments.  The possibility that people can be wrong about the fairly &#039;obvious&#039; is a big part of why we have formal reasoning mechanisms, as well as formal methods of empirical examination.

Of extremely high practical relevance, the conclusion that the highest priority for almost any sort of ethically concerned person is to reduce the probability of existential risk by encouraging the development of Friendly Artificial Intelligence does not constitute a &#039;boringly normal&#039; output, but rather, a counterintuitive one.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It seems to me that while there is some truth to the point about outputs being normal, the case is fairly overstated.  Newtonian Gravity tells us that dense objects all fall at fairly similar speeds and move along parabolic trajectories.  More dramatically, measurement or artistic training, not to mention developmental physiology, tell us that children have very different physical proportions from adults.  Astoundingly in retrospect, these fairly simple observations were not made until the Renaissance.  Slightly careful observation tells us that the normal conclusions are wrong.  In economics this is often the case today, and many educated people still believe that government can basically dictate collective economic outcomes by, for instance, creating jobs for the unemployed, and almost everyone mis-predicted the outcomes of Milgram&#8217;s authority experiments.  The possibility that people can be wrong about the fairly &#8216;obvious&#8217; is a big part of why we have formal reasoning mechanisms, as well as formal methods of empirical examination.</p>
<p>Of extremely high practical relevance, the conclusion that the highest priority for almost any sort of ethically concerned person is to reduce the probability of existential risk by encouraging the development of Friendly Artificial Intelligence does not constitute a &#8216;boringly normal&#8217; output, but rather, a counterintuitive one.</p>
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		<title>By: michael vassar</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/03/believing_in_to.html#comment-421025</link>
		<dc:creator>michael vassar</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Mar 2007 14:03:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/03/believing-in-todd.html#comment-421025</guid>
		<description>Nick:  Ironic parallel to the religion discussion, isn&#039;t it.  Everyone disagrees about what the truth is, but everyone agrees that the truth is simple or obvious.  As with Atheists, Professional (analytic) philosophers seem to constitute a class of self-declared &#039;experts&#039; who&#039;s expertise is not generally recognized by those outside of the class, but at least in the case of philosophers we have some posters on this blog, such as myself, who recognize the alleged expertise without belonging to the class.

Simon: I think that you need to learn about the difference between &#039;analytic&#039; and &#039;continental&#039; philosophy.

</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Nick:  Ironic parallel to the religion discussion, isn&#8217;t it.  Everyone disagrees about what the truth is, but everyone agrees that the truth is simple or obvious.  As with Atheists, Professional (analytic) philosophers seem to constitute a class of self-declared &#8216;experts&#8217; who&#8217;s expertise is not generally recognized by those outside of the class, but at least in the case of philosophers we have some posters on this blog, such as myself, who recognize the alleged expertise without belonging to the class.</p>
<p>Simon: I think that you need to learn about the difference between &#8216;analytic&#8217; and &#8216;continental&#8217; philosophy.</p>
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		<title>By: john</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/03/believing_in_to.html#comment-421024</link>
		<dc:creator>john</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Mar 2007 14:02:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/03/believing-in-todd.html#comment-421024</guid>
		<description>Bias?  How about comparing religious leaders to lying children?
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Bias?  How about comparing religious leaders to lying children?</p>
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