http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/02/when_are_weak_c.html Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future. Sun, 12 Feb 2012 02:20:49 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.3 http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/02/when_are_weak_c.html#comment-422121 Doug S. Sat, 10 Feb 2007 16:07:00 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/02/when-are-weak-clues-uncomfortable.html#comment-422121 I don't play poker much because I suck at it, but I am familiar with it and have played it before. Magic: The Gathering is my preferred game. I don’t play poker much because I suck at it, but I am familiar with it and have played it before. Magic: The Gathering is my preferred game.

]]> http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/02/when_are_weak_c.html#comment-422120 Richard Pointer Sat, 10 Feb 2007 09:09:54 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/02/when-are-weak-clues-uncomfortable.html#comment-422120 The last two posts suggest you are playing poker. Yes? The last two posts suggest you are playing poker. Yes?

]]> http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/02/when_are_weak_c.html#comment-422119 pdf23ds Sat, 10 Feb 2007 07:03:30 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/02/when-are-weak-clues-uncomfortable.html#comment-422119 I would say that the common element is when the clues you have are such that the expected cost of making the allegation (in the case that it's false) is greater than the expected gain of discovering that the allegation is true. And since people find it hard to be aware of things that they hide from others, they'll often just ignore the clues rather than observe them and let the clues accumulate until the overall evidence is stronger. I would say that the common element is when the clues you have are such that the expected cost of making the allegation (in the case that it’s false) is greater than the expected gain of discovering that the allegation is true. And since people find it hard to be aware of things that they hide from others, they’ll often just ignore the clues rather than observe them and let the clues accumulate until the overall evidence is stronger.

]]> http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/02/when_are_weak_c.html#comment-422118 Doug S. Sat, 10 Feb 2007 06:04:37 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/02/when-are-weak-clues-uncomfortable.html#comment-422118 Perhaps one sign of when weak clues are uncomfortable would be when the consequences of a false positive are perceived to be dire? I imagine that the examples you described would fall into this category as well. Perhaps one sign of when weak clues are uncomfortable would be when the consequences of a false positive are perceived to be dire? I imagine that the examples you described would fall into this category as well.

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