Comments on: Philip Tetlock’s Long Now Talk http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/02/philip_tetlocks.html Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future. Sun, 12 Feb 2012 03:05:10 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.3 By: Chris Hibbert http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/02/philip_tetlocks.html#comment-422112 Chris Hibbert Mon, 12 Feb 2007 22:50:10 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/02/philip-tetlocks-long-now-talk.html#comment-422112 Hmm. My recollection from the talk was that he said that one study group (at Exxon/Mobile?) had done a bunch of scenarios, and identified the rise of Gorbachev as an early indicator that liberalization was coming. That sounds prescient to me, but I find it plausible that Soviet watchers of the day could have figured it out. I'd guess Tetlock wouldn't have brought it up if it wasn't verifiable from some public record somewhere. Hmm. My recollection from the talk was that he said that one study group (at Exxon/Mobile?) had done a bunch of scenarios, and identified the rise of Gorbachev as an early indicator that liberalization was coming. That sounds prescient to me, but I find it plausible that Soviet watchers of the day could have figured it out. I’d guess Tetlock wouldn’t have brought it up if it wasn’t verifiable from some public record somewhere.

]]> By: eric http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/02/philip_tetlocks.html#comment-422111 eric Mon, 12 Feb 2007 21:54:31 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/02/philip-tetlocks-long-now-talk.html#comment-422111 What's funny is that he assumes that Gorbachev was going to liberalize the Soviet Union irrespective of what Reagan was doing...but that's an aside What’s funny is that he assumes that Gorbachev was going to liberalize the Soviet Union irrespective of what Reagan was doing…but that’s an aside

]]> By: Ben Hill http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/02/philip_tetlocks.html#comment-422110 Ben Hill Mon, 12 Feb 2007 15:03:31 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/02/philip-tetlocks-long-now-talk.html#comment-422110 Another person that I think would interest people reading this blog. NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nassim_Taleb edge.org/3rd_culture/bios/taleb.html He is especial good at finacial skepticism and people who make finacial prediction. Another person that I think would interest people reading this blog.

NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nassim_Taleb

edge.org/3rd_culture/bios/taleb.html

He is especial good at finacial skepticism and people who make finacial prediction.

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