Comments on: Disagreement on Inflation http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/02/disagreement_on.html Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future. Sat, 11 Feb 2012 23:23:58 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.3 By: Barkley Rosser http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/02/disagreement_on.html#comment-421913 Barkley Rosser Mon, 19 Feb 2007 15:16:15 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/02/disagreement-on-inflation.html#comment-421913 I am not sure why disagreements over inflation expectations should indicate bias, unless one is a true believer in rational expectations. But even with that, one can believe that the market as a whole exhibits ratex, even while there might be a distribution of individual expectations around that rational core. For that matter, the ratex forecast can be wrong, indeed always wrong. So, who is biased? The person who makes the correct forecast or the person who makes the incorrect but rationally expected forecast? I am not sure why disagreements over inflation expectations should indicate bias, unless one is a true believer in rational expectations. But even with that, one can believe that the market as a whole exhibits ratex, even while there might be a distribution of individual expectations around that rational core.

For that matter, the ratex forecast can be wrong, indeed always wrong. So, who is biased? The person who makes the correct forecast or the person who makes the incorrect but rationally expected forecast?

]]> By: Robin Hanson http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/02/disagreement_on.html#comment-421912 Robin Hanson Sun, 18 Feb 2007 18:08:05 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/02/disagreement-on-inflation.html#comment-421912 I didn't mean to imply we had <i>no</i> idea what others expect about inflation. I meant that our uncertainty about the beliefs of others is probably about the same magnitude as the variance in beliefs across people. I didn’t mean to imply we had no idea what others expect about inflation. I meant that our uncertainty about the beliefs of others is probably about the same magnitude as the variance in beliefs across people.

]]> By: sa http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/02/disagreement_on.html#comment-421911 sa Sun, 18 Feb 2007 17:05:31 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/02/disagreement-on-inflation.html#comment-421911 we do talk about inflation. not on a individual level but certainly on a meta level through newspapers and TV. we infer about others' inflation expectations in the smae way that we infer about many issues that don't affect us directly but we are interested in. from india(where i live) i am interested in US Presidential Elections '08 but not directly affected by it and have sometimes strong opinions about candidates. in summary i find it very hard to see how can there be no "knowingly disagreement" about anything in the world. we do talk about inflation. not on a individual level but certainly on a meta level through newspapers and TV. we infer about others’ inflation expectations in the smae way that we infer about many issues that don’t affect us directly but we are interested in. from india(where i live) i am interested in US Presidential Elections ’08 but not directly affected by it and have sometimes strong opinions about candidates. in summary i find it very hard to see how can there be no “knowingly disagreement” about anything in the world.

]]>