Comments on: Professors Progress Like Ads Advise http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/02/ads_advise_prof.html Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future. Sat, 20 Mar 2010 05:31:38 -0400 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: david http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/02/ads_advise_prof.html#comment-421626 david Sun, 04 Mar 2007 04:28:45 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/02/professors-progress-like-ads-advise.html#comment-421626 Aaaactually, consumers did revolt against tasteless apples. That's why there are now choices in apples in the supermarket at all. Until 20 years ago you had about two varieties of apples in most supermarkets, um, red and green. Then all the sudden people woke up and figgered out that no crap those apples from south of the equator taste good. Suddenly the apple contingent in WA state went bananas (pardon the phrase) trying to make something other than red delicious. And within the span of no lie about two years the whole country had many varieties of apples in the supermarket. Weeelll, the same thing is happening to funding agencies when they have enough money. If the money is just tight tight tight, we can see that they will always make the safe bet, look to the overachievers and assign dollars to zero risk projects with assured payoffs. Even if the payoffs are puny. When agencies rapidly accelerate, they begin to talk about risk versus reward, and actually try to parse it in the proposals' scores. There is at least some bit of attention toward high risk high payoff. I don't think the premise of the post about progress being a sideshow to the careerism is necessarily just plain inevitable. Under some conditions it won't be 100% inevitable. When fields are highly mature and when funding is not growing much, it probably is inevitable, though. Aaaactually, consumers did revolt against tasteless apples. That’s why there are now choices in apples
in the supermarket at all. Until 20 years ago you had about two varieties of apples in most supermarkets,
um, red and green. Then all the sudden people woke up and figgered out that no crap those apples from
south of the equator taste good. Suddenly the apple contingent in WA state went bananas (pardon the phrase)
trying to make something other than red delicious. And within the span of no lie about two years the whole
country had many varieties of apples in the supermarket. Weeelll, the same thing is happening to funding
agencies when they have enough money. If the money is just tight tight tight, we can see that they will
always make the safe bet, look to the overachievers and assign dollars to zero risk projects with assured
payoffs. Even if the payoffs are puny. When agencies rapidly accelerate, they begin to talk about
risk versus reward, and actually try to parse it in the proposals’ scores. There is at least some bit
of attention toward high risk high payoff. I don’t think the premise of the post about progress being
a sideshow to the careerism is necessarily just plain inevitable. Under some conditions it won’t be
100% inevitable. When fields are highly mature and when funding is not growing much, it probably is
inevitable, though.

]]> By: Stuart Buck http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/02/ads_advise_prof.html#comment-421625 Stuart Buck Wed, 28 Feb 2007 21:40:04 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/02/professors-progress-like-ads-advise.html#comment-421625 So, in the context of the earlier discussion about God, you'd be saying that professors might not be any better at <i>advancing</i> in their knowledge of God, but that their superior knowledge arises from accumulations of past advances? But how did those past advances come about? So, in the context of the earlier discussion about God, you’d be saying that professors might not be any better at advancing in their knowledge of God, but that their superior knowledge arises from accumulations of past advances? But how did those past advances come about?

]]> By: eric http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/02/ads_advise_prof.html#comment-421624 eric Wed, 28 Feb 2007 16:49:50 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/02/professors-progress-like-ads-advise.html#comment-421624 This reminds me of Margaret Mead's Coming of Age in Samoa, which was thoroughly debunked by Derek Freeman in 1984, but Mead partisans never recanted. How many Marxist professors ever said 'all that stuff about the superiority of socialist economies I did in the 70's, it was wrong'? People stake out a position, and after a certain time only death of the professors brings change, not new data, or new theories that contradict old approaches. So you are selling to students who have not made up their minds set indirectly, by making arguments that qualify as 'solid research' according to a set of conventions that the old professors deem 'scientific'. The key bug in the process is the finite lives of scientists, and the value of reputations, because this makes switching costs for old-timers much higher than for youngsters. This reminds me of Margaret Mead’s Coming of Age in Samoa, which was thoroughly debunked by Derek Freeman in 1984, but Mead partisans never recanted. How many Marxist professors ever said ‘all that stuff about the superiority of socialist economies I did in the 70’s, it was wrong’? People stake out a position, and after a certain time only death of the professors brings change, not new data, or new theories that contradict old approaches. So you are selling to students who have not made up their minds set indirectly, by making arguments that qualify as ’solid research’ according to a set of conventions that the old professors deem ’scientific’. The key bug in the process is the finite lives of scientists, and the value of reputations, because this makes switching costs for old-timers much higher than for youngsters.

]]> By: Robin Hanson http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/02/ads_advise_prof.html#comment-421623 Robin Hanson Wed, 28 Feb 2007 15:50:05 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/02/professors-progress-like-ads-advise.html#comment-421623 Stuart, academia can be an important store of knowledge in our society, even if it is not an especially efficient institution for increasing that knowledge store. Stuart, academia can be an important store of knowledge in our society, even if it is not an especially efficient institution for increasing that knowledge store.

]]> By: Stuart Buck http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/02/ads_advise_prof.html#comment-421622 Stuart Buck Wed, 28 Feb 2007 15:35:41 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/02/professors-progress-like-ads-advise.html#comment-421622 Prof. Hanson -- Two statements that seem inconsistent, at least on the surface: 1. "David, no doubt there are some people more 'willing to sacrifice for truth,' and arenas of human behavior with more such people may well make more progress toward truth. But the question is why we should think that academia contains more such people, or that such people have greater effect in academia." 2. This post: http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/01/godless_profess.html "If all we know about a view was that professors held it more, and elite professors even more so, we would be inclined to favor that view." Is there something that I'm missing? Why aren't these two statements contradictory? Prof. Hanson –

Two statements that seem inconsistent, at least on the surface:

1. “David, no doubt there are some people more ‘willing to sacrifice for truth,’ and arenas of human behavior with more such people may well make more progress toward truth. But the question is why we should think that academia contains more such people, or that such people have greater effect in academia.”

2. This post: http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/01/godless_profess.html
“If all we know about a view was that professors held it more, and elite professors even more so, we would be inclined to favor that view.”

Is there something that I’m missing? Why aren’t these two statements contradictory?

]]> By: Robin Hanson http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/02/ads_advise_prof.html#comment-421621 Robin Hanson Wed, 28 Feb 2007 15:03:48 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/02/professors-progress-like-ads-advise.html#comment-421621 Aaron, I hope when you calm down you'll find time to explain yourself. Aaron, I hope when you calm down you’ll find time to explain yourself.

]]> By: Aaron Bergman http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/02/ads_advise_prof.html#comment-421620 Aaron Bergman Wed, 28 Feb 2007 15:00:33 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/02/professors-progress-like-ads-advise.html#comment-421620 You know, I had a serious response typed up here, but your post doesn't deserve it. It so reeks of bitterness and agenda and is so divorced from what one has to suffer through to obtain the marginal reward of an academic position that I'll leave it to others to mire their way through your mis- and preconceptions. You know, I had a serious response typed up here, but your post doesn’t deserve it. It so reeks of bitterness and agenda and is so divorced from what one has to suffer through to obtain the marginal reward of an academic position that I’ll leave it to others to mire their way through your mis- and preconceptions.

]]> By: Robin Hanson http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/02/ads_advise_prof.html#comment-421619 Robin Hanson Wed, 28 Feb 2007 10:18:51 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/02/professors-progress-like-ads-advise.html#comment-421619 Aaron, this topic goes to the heart of the question of when you can reasonably disagree with academic experts. The less you think ads are objective evaluations of product quality, the more you will feel free to disagree with those evaluations, at least if you have reason to consider yourself more objective. Similarly for academia. Aaron, this topic goes to the heart of the question of when you can reasonably disagree with academic experts. The less you think ads are objective evaluations of product quality, the more you will feel free to disagree with those evaluations, at least if you have reason to consider yourself more objective. Similarly for academia.

]]> By: Aaron Bergman http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/02/ads_advise_prof.html#comment-421618 Aaron Bergman Wed, 28 Feb 2007 04:47:17 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/02/professors-progress-like-ads-advise.html#comment-421618 Bitter much? Bitter much?

]]> By: Robin Hanson http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/02/ads_advise_prof.html#comment-421617 Robin Hanson Tue, 27 Feb 2007 23:44:04 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/02/professors-progress-like-ads-advise.html#comment-421617 David, no doubt there are some people more "willing to sacrifice for truth," and arenas of human behavior with more such people may well make more progress toward truth. But the question is why we should think that academia contains more such people, or that such people have greater effect in academia. David, no doubt there are some people more “willing to sacrifice for truth,” and arenas of human behavior with more such people may well make more progress toward truth. But the question is why we should think that academia contains more such people, or that such people have greater effect in academia.

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