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	<title>Comments on: Why Don&#8217;t the Young Learn from the Old?</title>
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	<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/01/why_dont_the_yo.html</link>
	<description>Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future.</description>
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		<title>By: MQ</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/01/why_dont_the_yo.html#comment-423197</link>
		<dc:creator>MQ</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Jan 2007 00:05:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/01/why-dont-the-young-learn-from-the-old.html#comment-423197</guid>
		<description>I don&#039;t find this particularly mysterious, for the following reasons:

1) Optimal tradeoffs between &quot;irresponsible&quot; pleasure-seeking and experimental behavior vs. sober and &quot;responsible&quot; behavior will change over the life course.  This can be solely because of time -- changes in the amount of time left to live (and thus recover from mistakes), the amount of time and effort already invested in the current path one is on.  It can also be due to changes in experience and physical health over life.  An old person is not necessarily an expert in how a risky but pleasurable experience *feels* to a young, vigorous person who is not already jaded to the pleasure involved.

2) Big life course decisions have a lot at stake, and individual personality differences are quite significant in deciding which course is best.  It is quite plausible that the extra benefits from the older person&#039;s experience do not outweigh the individual differences, and people are simply right to be suspicious of blindly following the advice of others in these matters.

3) Well-known cognitive biases lead people to overvalue their own decisions regardless of whether these really turned out to be the right ones.  An older person&#039;s advice may simply be their defensive post facto rationalizations for their own choices.  Not always, but certainly sometimes.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I don&#8217;t find this particularly mysterious, for the following reasons:</p>
<p>1) Optimal tradeoffs between &#8220;irresponsible&#8221; pleasure-seeking and experimental behavior vs. sober and &#8220;responsible&#8221; behavior will change over the life course.  This can be solely because of time &#8212; changes in the amount of time left to live (and thus recover from mistakes), the amount of time and effort already invested in the current path one is on.  It can also be due to changes in experience and physical health over life.  An old person is not necessarily an expert in how a risky but pleasurable experience *feels* to a young, vigorous person who is not already jaded to the pleasure involved.</p>
<p>2) Big life course decisions have a lot at stake, and individual personality differences are quite significant in deciding which course is best.  It is quite plausible that the extra benefits from the older person&#8217;s experience do not outweigh the individual differences, and people are simply right to be suspicious of blindly following the advice of others in these matters.</p>
<p>3) Well-known cognitive biases lead people to overvalue their own decisions regardless of whether these really turned out to be the right ones.  An older person&#8217;s advice may simply be their defensive post facto rationalizations for their own choices.  Not always, but certainly sometimes.</p>
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		<title>By: michael vassar</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/01/why_dont_the_yo.html#comment-423196</link>
		<dc:creator>michael vassar</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Jan 2007 17:20:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/01/why-dont-the-young-learn-from-the-old.html#comment-423196</guid>
		<description>I have almost never found it to be the case that I regretted not taking the advice of older people and authorities, while I have often found taking their advice to be an error, frequently one difficult to correct later.
The non-rocket-science advice, such as &quot;wear a seat belt&quot; or &quot;get a job&quot;, young people seem to do fairly well.  With respect to more difficult topics, such as how to succeed in social domains or what sort of job to get, advice tends to be cheap banalities, and fairly frequently to actively oppose youthful impulses which turn out to be correct.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I have almost never found it to be the case that I regretted not taking the advice of older people and authorities, while I have often found taking their advice to be an error, frequently one difficult to correct later.<br />
The non-rocket-science advice, such as &#8220;wear a seat belt&#8221; or &#8220;get a job&#8221;, young people seem to do fairly well.  With respect to more difficult topics, such as how to succeed in social domains or what sort of job to get, advice tends to be cheap banalities, and fairly frequently to actively oppose youthful impulses which turn out to be correct.</p>
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		<title>By: Robin Hanson</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/01/why_dont_the_yo.html#comment-423195</link>
		<dc:creator>Robin Hanson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Jan 2007 16:23:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/01/why-dont-the-young-learn-from-the-old.html#comment-423195</guid>
		<description>Nick, if our rate of learning was fixed, then I agree a simpler theory would be that the optimal level of idealism is roughly what we have at midlife, and   evolution had to accept that this mean it would be too high early and too low late.  But I suspect that evolution also had control over our learning rate; on topics where we don&#039;t want to learn, we don&#039;t learn much.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Nick, if our rate of learning was fixed, then I agree a simpler theory would be that the optimal level of idealism is roughly what we have at midlife, and   evolution had to accept that this mean it would be too high early and too low late.  But I suspect that evolution also had control over our learning rate; on topics where we don&#8217;t want to learn, we don&#8217;t learn much.</p>
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		<title>By: Nick Bostrom</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/01/why_dont_the_yo.html#comment-423194</link>
		<dc:creator>Nick Bostrom</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Jan 2007 15:14:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/01/why-dont-the-young-learn-from-the-old.html#comment-423194</guid>
		<description>Robin: &quot;I was suggesting that nature programmed us to start out idealistic, knowing we would slowly learn the truth, because idealism helps the young to attract allies, and the old already have their allies.&quot;

I want to tease apart two different (but compatible) possibilities:

A. Even if optimum level of idealism were constant over the lifespan, we might still expect that evolution would have made us such that we start out idealistic and end up more cynical (if experience inevitably increases insight and insight inevitably increases cynicism).

B. Optimal level of idealism changes over the lifespan, because the young need to attact allies while the old instead need to make the most of the allies they already have.

You claim B. I don&#039;t know whether you also believe A. If A were true, then it might be harder to determine empirically whether B also holds, because one could explain the greater idealism of the young, and their frequent failure to listen to their elders, by appeal to A.

B might be well be true, but one could think of some possible factors that would favor more idealism in the old. For example, if the old are more involved in tribal-level politics, they might have more need to signal idealism about such politics.

One might also think that the interests of the young would be more selfish, being concerned with their own health, reproduction, and social advancement, while the old might have more interest in the welfare of their children, grandchildren, clan, and tribe in general. If an old woman sacrifices herself for her relatives or the community, does this not count as idealism? Or if an old man devotes himself to some communal project or ideal so as to create a great legacy, is not that idealism too? Is there any data on whether these things are done more by the young or the old?




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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Robin: &#8220;I was suggesting that nature programmed us to start out idealistic, knowing we would slowly learn the truth, because idealism helps the young to attract allies, and the old already have their allies.&#8221;</p>
<p>I want to tease apart two different (but compatible) possibilities:</p>
<p>A. Even if optimum level of idealism were constant over the lifespan, we might still expect that evolution would have made us such that we start out idealistic and end up more cynical (if experience inevitably increases insight and insight inevitably increases cynicism).</p>
<p>B. Optimal level of idealism changes over the lifespan, because the young need to attact allies while the old instead need to make the most of the allies they already have.</p>
<p>You claim B. I don&#8217;t know whether you also believe A. If A were true, then it might be harder to determine empirically whether B also holds, because one could explain the greater idealism of the young, and their frequent failure to listen to their elders, by appeal to A.</p>
<p>B might be well be true, but one could think of some possible factors that would favor more idealism in the old. For example, if the old are more involved in tribal-level politics, they might have more need to signal idealism about such politics.</p>
<p>One might also think that the interests of the young would be more selfish, being concerned with their own health, reproduction, and social advancement, while the old might have more interest in the welfare of their children, grandchildren, clan, and tribe in general. If an old woman sacrifices herself for her relatives or the community, does this not count as idealism? Or if an old man devotes himself to some communal project or ideal so as to create a great legacy, is not that idealism too? Is there any data on whether these things are done more by the young or the old?</p>
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		<title>By: Robin Hanson</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/01/why_dont_the_yo.html#comment-423193</link>
		<dc:creator>Robin Hanson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Jan 2007 12:22:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/01/why-dont-the-young-learn-from-the-old.html#comment-423193</guid>
		<description>Michael, we are not talking rocket science here; most people should be smart enough to express and understand basic life strategy advice.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Michael, we are not talking rocket science here; most people should be smart enough to express and understand basic life strategy advice.</p>
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		<title>By: michael vassar</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/01/why_dont_the_yo.html#comment-423192</link>
		<dc:creator>michael vassar</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Jan 2007 08:10:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/01/why-dont-the-young-learn-from-the-old.html#comment-423192</guid>
		<description>It seems to me that given regression to the mean, few young people have high IQ and can rely upon the high IQs of accessible old people concerned with their well-being.  Given that except between people of high IQ, communication of insight and wisdom is very noisy and expensive, people should give low prios to the prospects for benefitting from aphorism.
Basically, the people smart enough to benefit from verbal/symbolic instruction are unlikely to have smart enough mentors to provide them with important insights.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It seems to me that given regression to the mean, few young people have high IQ and can rely upon the high IQs of accessible old people concerned with their well-being.  Given that except between people of high IQ, communication of insight and wisdom is very noisy and expensive, people should give low prios to the prospects for benefitting from aphorism.<br />
Basically, the people smart enough to benefit from verbal/symbolic instruction are unlikely to have smart enough mentors to provide them with important insights.</p>
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		<title>By: David Rotot</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/01/why_dont_the_yo.html#comment-423191</link>
		<dc:creator>David Rotot</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Jan 2007 01:28:32 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>It seems to me that the young do learn from the old, and society is structured to ensure that happens.  Take a look at the way societies organize a young person&#039;s life.  The young are structured into opportunities for the old to instruct and guide the young.  Virtually all human cultures have their young in school, sports, lessons, local superstitions or churches, and the family.

Cheers,

David Rotor
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It seems to me that the young do learn from the old, and society is structured to ensure that happens.  Take a look at the way societies organize a young person&#8217;s life.  The young are structured into opportunities for the old to instruct and guide the young.  Virtually all human cultures have their young in school, sports, lessons, local superstitions or churches, and the family.</p>
<p>Cheers,</p>
<p>David Rotor</p>
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		<title>By: Robin Hanson</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/01/why_dont_the_yo.html#comment-423190</link>
		<dc:creator>Robin Hanson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Jan 2007 00:51:21 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Nick B, I was suggesting that nature programmed us to start out idealistic, knowing we would slowly learn the truth, because idealism helps the young to attract allies, and the old already have their allies.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Nick B, I was suggesting that nature programmed us to start out idealistic, knowing we would slowly learn the truth, because idealism helps the young to attract allies, and the old already have their allies.</p>
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		<title>By: Nick Bostrom</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/01/why_dont_the_yo.html#comment-423189</link>
		<dc:creator>Nick Bostrom</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Jan 2007 00:33:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/01/why-dont-the-young-learn-from-the-old.html#comment-423189</guid>
		<description>Robin, the article you link to (http://hanson.gmu.edu/innocence.html) is interesting.

It might have been Churchill or someone else who said something like, &quot;Anyone who is not an idealist when he is young is a scoundrel, but anyone who is not a cynic when he is old is a fool&quot;. There seems to be some truth to this. Also, we feel that we need to protect young children from exposure to obscenity, violence, and grit and horror in general, but less so with older children and adults.

If insight gradually replaces innocence over the lifespan, what is the explanation of this? Is it simply inevitable that insight increases with experience, so that we must start out too naive and end up too jaded, spending only a brief time at the optimum point in passing? Or does the optimum tradeoff point change with age, and if so why?


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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Robin, the article you link to (<a href="http://hanson.gmu.edu/innocence.html" rel="nofollow">http://hanson.gmu.edu/innocence.html</a>) is interesting.</p>
<p>It might have been Churchill or someone else who said something like, &#8220;Anyone who is not an idealist when he is young is a scoundrel, but anyone who is not a cynic when he is old is a fool&#8221;. There seems to be some truth to this. Also, we feel that we need to protect young children from exposure to obscenity, violence, and grit and horror in general, but less so with older children and adults.</p>
<p>If insight gradually replaces innocence over the lifespan, what is the explanation of this? Is it simply inevitable that insight increases with experience, so that we must start out too naive and end up too jaded, spending only a brief time at the optimum point in passing? Or does the optimum tradeoff point change with age, and if so why?</p>
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		<title>By: Robin Hanson</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/01/why_dont_the_yo.html#comment-423188</link>
		<dc:creator>Robin Hanson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Jan 2007 15:58:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/01/why-dont-the-young-learn-from-the-old.html#comment-423188</guid>
		<description>Adrian, or it could be that the story you relate is the exception that proves the rule.  :)
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Adrian, or it could be that the story you relate is the exception that proves the rule.  <img src='http://www.overcomingbias.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
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