Comments on: Wanted: A Meta-Poll http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/01/wanted_a_metapo.html Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future. Sun, 12 Feb 2012 03:06:37 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.3 By: Robin Hanson http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/01/wanted_a_metapo.html#comment-422372 Robin Hanson Mon, 05 Feb 2007 15:34:43 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/01/wanted-a-meta-poll.html#comment-422372 Chris, are you perhaps volunteering? :) Chris, are you perhaps volunteering? :)

]]> By: Chris Yi http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/01/wanted_a_metapo.html#comment-422371 Chris Yi Mon, 05 Feb 2007 12:57:18 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/01/wanted-a-meta-poll.html#comment-422371 I would love to see a study/experiment done on something of this nature, although I'd first like to see it done in a less controversial setting (ha ha, but how do we decide what is controversial?), one in which people would be more conducive to changing their minds, and then running a stochastic model over some time to see how people's opinions change. I'd expect to see some sort of normalization and centralization process where everyone does what everyone else was doing. I'd also want to mask the names of the various groups involved ("Oh, well, Country X thinks like that? Well, I disagree with them on principle then!") I only claim that this topic is one where people are not very likely to change their minds because it is so divisive, which I think has a high correlation with immutability of individual opinion. I've been wondering lately how a mechanism like this would affect the ID vs. Darwinism "debate"; what if those who claim that there is a debate saw that nobody else seems to think so? It seems to me that there are various ways for individuals to push single memes out into public opinion, but it is very difficult to publish counter memes that can undo what the first one did. I would love to see a study/experiment done on something of this nature, although I’d first like to see it done in a less controversial setting (ha ha, but how do we decide what is controversial?), one in which people would be more conducive to changing their minds, and then running a stochastic model over some time to see how people’s opinions change. I’d expect to see some sort of normalization and centralization process where everyone does what everyone else was doing. I’d also want to mask the names of the various groups involved (“Oh, well, Country X thinks like that? Well, I disagree with them on principle then!”) I only claim that this topic is one where people are not very likely to change their minds because it is so divisive, which I think has a high correlation with immutability of individual opinion.

I’ve been wondering lately how a mechanism like this would affect the ID vs. Darwinism “debate”; what if those who claim that there is a debate saw that nobody else seems to think so? It seems to me that there are various ways for individuals to push single memes out into public opinion, but it is very difficult to publish counter memes that can undo what the first one did.

]]> By: TGGP http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/01/wanted_a_metapo.html#comment-422370 TGGP Sat, 03 Feb 2007 19:58:01 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/01/wanted-a-meta-poll.html#comment-422370 Speaking of genetics, countries and beliefs/attitudes, a commenter at Gene Expression pointed out <a href="http://econ.binghamton.edu/papers/clark.pdf" rel="nofollow">this very interesting paper</a> from Gregory Clark of UC Davis claiming that the population of England through a Malthusian process evolved to be "genetically capitalist", and thus allowing it to escape the Malthusian trap. Speaking of genetics, countries and beliefs/attitudes, a commenter at Gene Expression pointed out this very interesting paper from Gregory Clark of UC Davis claiming that the population of England through a Malthusian process evolved to be “genetically capitalist”, and thus allowing it to escape the Malthusian trap.

]]> By: odograph http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/01/wanted_a_metapo.html#comment-422369 odograph Fri, 02 Feb 2007 13:25:52 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/01/wanted-a-meta-poll.html#comment-422369 "How much does this distribution info change your mind?" I am genetically Danish/Icelandic/British ... oh no, is my confidence in natural selection now suspect? “How much does this distribution info change your mind?”

I am genetically Danish/Icelandic/British … oh no, is my confidence in natural selection now suspect?

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