Comments on: Hobgoblins of Voter Minds http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/01/hobgoblins_of_v.html Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future. Sun, 12 Feb 2012 01:09:57 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.3 By: Robin Hanson http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/01/hobgoblins_of_v.html#comment-423010 Robin Hanson Fri, 12 Jan 2007 22:06:03 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/01/hobgoblins-of-voter-minds.html#comment-423010 TGGP, you lament the public's ignorance, but don't think better info improves beliefs? TGGP, you lament the public’s ignorance, but don’t think better info improves beliefs?

]]> By: TGGP http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/01/hobgoblins_of_v.html#comment-423009 TGGP Fri, 12 Jan 2007 20:37:55 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/01/hobgoblins-of-voter-minds.html#comment-423009 Economists from Bastiat to Caplan have bemoaned the public's ignorance of economic matters. Is there any reason we should expect them to have good information on social matters? As one who doesn't believe there is any sort of objectively correct moral position on anything, that may be irrelevant, but the manner in which this post was written indicates that people should have better beliefs with better info. Economists from Bastiat to Caplan have bemoaned the public’s ignorance of economic matters. Is there any reason we should expect them to have good information on social matters? As one who doesn’t believe there is any sort of objectively correct moral position on anything, that may be irrelevant, but the manner in which this post was written indicates that people should have better beliefs with better info.

]]> By: Robin Hanson http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/01/hobgoblins_of_v.html#comment-423008 Robin Hanson Fri, 12 Jan 2007 13:21:19 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/01/hobgoblins-of-voter-minds.html#comment-423008 Doug, as always, for more details follow the link. Doug, as always, for more details follow the link.

]]> By: Doug http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/01/hobgoblins_of_v.html#comment-423007 Doug Fri, 12 Jan 2007 11:55:49 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/01/hobgoblins-of-voter-minds.html#comment-423007 It's a funny result. I wonder about what was measured, though. Changing rhetoric, changing policy or both? In the 2004 U.S. presidential election, Kerry changed his rhetoric on trade dramatically but with very little policy behind the rhetoric and Bush wavered on same-sex civil unions with no underlying policy suggested. We can't know whether either were rewarded for either. If the measurement is of rhetoric (i.e. exclamations unaccompanied by concrete proposals) that is one thing, but if the independent variable measured actually policy proposals then changing positions on economic factors usually will mean greater regulation and in social policy, deregulation so it may be "changing positions" may be a proxy for classic liberalism. It’s a funny result. I wonder about what was measured, though. Changing rhetoric, changing policy or both? In the 2004 U.S. presidential election, Kerry changed his rhetoric on trade dramatically but with very little policy behind the rhetoric and Bush wavered on same-sex civil unions with no underlying policy suggested. We can’t know whether either were rewarded for either.

If the measurement is of rhetoric (i.e. exclamations unaccompanied by concrete proposals) that is one thing, but if the independent variable measured actually policy proposals then changing positions on economic factors usually will mean greater regulation and in social policy, deregulation so it may be “changing positions” may be a proxy for classic liberalism.

]]> By: Robin Hanson http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/01/hobgoblins_of_v.html#comment-423006 Robin Hanson Fri, 12 Jan 2007 10:10:18 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/01/hobgoblins-of-voter-minds.html#comment-423006 Chris, if voters were being conservative then they wouldn't be changing their minds about the social policy. The key point is that voters punish parties for changing positions <i>even when</i> the voters have changed their minds about the social policy. Chris, if voters were being conservative then they wouldn’t be changing their minds about the social policy. The key point is that voters punish parties for changing positions even when the voters have changed their minds about the social policy.

]]> By: ChrisA http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/01/hobgoblins_of_v.html#comment-423005 ChrisA Fri, 12 Jan 2007 06:27:24 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/01/hobgoblins-of-voter-minds.html#comment-423005 Given that the list of countries where this tendency is shown are "advanced democracies" then we can assume that their political and social systems work, so maybe the voters are taking a rational view by being genuine conservatives - given the complexity of society and the interactions in it, it is never clear whether isolated changes in social policies will have a unwanted unintended consequences somewhere else. Given that the list of countries where this tendency is shown are “advanced democracies” then we can assume that their political and social systems work, so maybe the voters are taking a rational view by being genuine conservatives – given the complexity of society and the interactions in it, it is never clear whether isolated changes in social policies will have a unwanted unintended consequences somewhere else.

]]> By: Muck and Mystery http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/01/hobgoblins_of_v.html#comment-423011 Muck and Mystery Wed, 10 Jan 2007 00:21:51 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/01/hobgoblins-of-voter-minds.html#comment-423011 <strong>Dark Principles</strong> Robin Hanson comments on a recent political science paper. Margit Tavits shows that in "23 advanced democracies over a period of 40 years," voters rewarded political parties for changing economic positions, but punished parties for changing other soci... Dark Principles

Robin Hanson comments on a recent political science paper. Margit Tavits shows that in “23 advanced democracies over a period of 40 years,” voters rewarded political parties for changing economic positions, but punished parties for changing other soci…

]]> By: Robin Hanson http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/01/hobgoblins_of_v.html#comment-423004 Robin Hanson Tue, 09 Jan 2007 14:21:48 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/01/hobgoblins-of-voter-minds.html#comment-423004 Rob, the paper says "Western Europe, Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, and the United States" from the Comparative Manifesto Project. Rob, the paper says “Western Europe, Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, and the United States” from the Comparative Manifesto Project.

]]> By: Rob Spear http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/01/hobgoblins_of_v.html#comment-423003 Rob Spear Tue, 09 Jan 2007 13:03:27 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/01/hobgoblins-of-voter-minds.html#comment-423003 What does "advanced democracy" mean? What does “advanced democracy” mean?

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