Comments on: You Will Age And Die http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/you_will_age_an.html Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future. Sat, 20 Mar 2010 07:52:14 -0400 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: Anne http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/you_will_age_an.html#comment-423583 Anne Mon, 21 May 2007 02:37:24 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/12/you-will-age-and-die.html#comment-423583 <strong>Trends in Attitudes Toward Life, Death and Progress</strong> That is no country for old men. The young In one another's arms, birds in the trees (out of a --Those Trends in Attitudes Toward Life, Death and Progress

That is no country for old men. The young In one another’s arms, birds in the trees (out of a –Those

]]> By: Anne http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/you_will_age_an.html#comment-423584 Anne Mon, 21 May 2007 02:35:24 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/12/you-will-age-and-die.html#comment-423584 <strong>Trends in Attitudes Toward Life, Death and Progress</strong> That is no country for old men. The young In one another's arms, birds in the trees (out of a --Those Trends in Attitudes Toward Life, Death and Progress

That is no country for old men. The young In one another’s arms, birds in the trees (out of a –Those

]]> By: Robin Hanson http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/you_will_age_an.html#comment-428795 Robin Hanson Fri, 05 Jan 2007 00:40:00 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/12/you-will-age-and-die.html#comment-428795 <p>See the small item added to the post above. </p> See the small item added to the post above.

]]> By: Hal Finney http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/you_will_age_an.html#comment-428794 Hal Finney Fri, 29 Dec 2006 17:20:00 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/12/you-will-age-and-die.html#comment-428794 <p>Via the Instapundit blog http://www.instapundit.com I found this article about Longevity Insurance:</p> <p>http://www.fightaging.org/archives/001073.php</p> <p>Basically, this insures you against longevity; that is, if you live long, it pays you, but if you die early, you get nothing. The idea is that many people have high expenses late in their lives and they may not have saved enough to carry them through an unusually extended life span.</p> <p>In effect, insurance companies are betting against the prospects for enhanced longevity. The commentor on the site linked is a life extension enthusiast and predicts that this will turn out to be a poor business decision for the companies.</p> Via the Instapundit blog http://www.instapundit.com I found this article about Longevity Insurance:

http://www.fightaging.org/archives/001073.php

Basically, this insures you against longevity; that is, if you live long, it pays you, but if you die early, you get nothing. The idea is that many people have high expenses late in their lives and they may not have saved enough to carry them through an unusually extended life span.

In effect, insurance companies are betting against the prospects for enhanced longevity. The commentor on the site linked is a life extension enthusiast and predicts that this will turn out to be a poor business decision for the companies.

]]> By: Marc_Geddes http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/you_will_age_an.html#comment-428793 Marc_Geddes Fri, 29 Dec 2006 01:11:00 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/12/you-will-age-and-die.html#comment-428793 <p>>Marc, I could not ask for a more vivid example of fear-of-death-related overconfidence and denial. Do tell us here when you do, or do not, win $2M.</p> <p>*Marc bows and grins broadly* </p> <p>PS As to the puzzle contest I mentioned it's on 5 levels. I'm close to cracking the lowest level now - watch the 'Media room' here:</p> <p>http://www.alchemistdar.com/Public/MediaRoom/index.cfm</p> <p>Readers can verify for themselves by checking the stats (for numbers of users) in the forum that I was competing against at least 7 000 hard-core Mensa-ites. 1 race horse can beat 7 000 mules ;)</p> <p> </p> >Marc, I could not ask for a more vivid example of fear-of-death-related overconfidence and denial. Do tell us here when you do, or do not, win $2M.

*Marc bows and grins broadly*

PS As to the puzzle contest I mentioned it’s on 5 levels. I’m close to cracking the lowest level now – watch the ‘Media room’ here:

http://www.alchemistdar.com/Public/MediaRoom/index.cfm

Readers can verify for themselves by checking the stats (for numbers of users) in the forum that I was competing against at least 7 000 hard-core Mensa-ites. 1 race horse can beat 7 000 mules ;)

]]> By: Anne Corwin http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/you_will_age_an.html#comment-428792 Anne Corwin Thu, 28 Dec 2006 17:26:00 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/12/you-will-age-and-die.html#comment-428792 <p>Eliezer -- I agree. When I said that it "means something" that this article has so many replies, I was referring to the fact that survival is a Really Big Deal for each and every one of us. </p> Eliezer — I agree. When I said that it “means something” that this article has so many replies, I was referring to the fact that survival is a Really Big Deal for each and every one of us.

]]> By: Eliezer Yudkowsky http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/you_will_age_an.html#comment-428791 Eliezer Yudkowsky Thu, 28 Dec 2006 16:19:00 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/12/you-will-age-and-die.html#comment-428791 <p>Anne, I wouldn't call that a bias, but a proper judgment of the value of information, which derives from what it is information *about*.</p> Anne, I wouldn’t call that a bias, but a proper judgment of the value of information, which derives from what it is information *about*.

]]> By: Anne Corwin http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/you_will_age_an.html#comment-423582 Anne Corwin Tue, 26 Dec 2006 17:14:05 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/12/you-will-age-and-die.html#comment-423582 The fact that this particular article has so many replies probably means something -- regardless of whether one is overconfident, overly pessimistic, or something akin to possibly realistic, the subject of one's own mortality does seem to prompt a lot of attention. The fact that this particular article has so many replies probably means something — regardless of whether one is overconfident, overly pessimistic, or something akin to possibly realistic, the subject of one’s own mortality does seem to prompt a lot of attention.

]]> By: ChrisA http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/you_will_age_an.html#comment-423581 ChrisA Tue, 26 Dec 2006 15:33:14 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/12/you-will-age-and-die.html#comment-423581 Michael Yes, if you had a dutch book case on longevity/non-longevity it would be rational to bet, but this would not be betting on longevity itself, you would be just taking advantage of an arbitrage. People with radically different beliefs rationally make the same bet in the dutch book case. After many such bets, all that the market would show was that the arbitrage had been resolved, it would not necessarily give you any useful information about the timing or likelyhood of a cure for old age. Also I am not sure an objective probability really does exist for things like a cure for old age. The event is a once only event and it will either happen or not. I would rather say it is indeterminate. The process to solution can't be modelled, even with the best possible computer, all we can have is "intuition" which is a bit too close to astrology for me. Of course it depends on what you mean when you say that an event has a probability - to me this only makes any sense if it can be rationally calculated or modelled (not necessarily using today's technology). Take the example of the decay of a radioactive particle, we cannot predict the timing of this decay on an individual atomic level, it is indeterminate - it can't be calculated in other words. Michael

Yes, if you had a dutch book case on longevity/non-longevity it would be rational to bet, but this would not be betting on longevity itself, you would be just taking advantage of an arbitrage. People with radically different beliefs rationally make the same bet in the dutch book case. After many such bets, all that the market would show was that the arbitrage had been resolved, it would not necessarily give you any useful information about the timing or likelyhood of a cure for old age.

Also I am not sure an objective probability really does exist for things like a cure for old age. The event is a once only event and it will either happen or not. I would rather say it is indeterminate. The process to solution can’t be modelled, even with the best possible computer, all we can have is “intuition” which is a bit too close to astrology for me. Of course it depends on what you mean when you say that an event has a probability – to me this only makes any sense if it can be rationally calculated or modelled (not necessarily using today’s technology). Take the example of the decay of a radioactive particle, we cannot predict the timing of this decay on an individual atomic level, it is indeterminate – it can’t be calculated in other words.

]]> By: Robin Hanson http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/you_will_age_an.html#comment-423580 Robin Hanson Tue, 26 Dec 2006 11:28:41 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/12/you-will-age-and-die.html#comment-423580 Marc, I could not ask for a more vivid example of fear-of-death-related overconfidence and denial. Do tell us here when you do, or do not, win $2M. Marc, I could not ask for a more vivid example of fear-of-death-related overconfidence and denial. Do tell us here when you do, or do not, win $2M.

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