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	<title>Comments on: Why Common Priors</title>
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	<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/why_common_prio.html</link>
	<description>Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future.</description>
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		<title>By: Overcoming Bias : Sleeping Beauty&#8217;s Assistant</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/why_common_prio.html#comment-477518</link>
		<dc:creator>Overcoming Bias : Sleeping Beauty&#8217;s Assistant</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 23 Jun 2011 20:03:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/12/why-common-priors.html#comment-477518</guid>
		<description>[...] Each agent is asked to consider the information situation of a &#8220;pre-agent&#8221; who is not sure which agents will get which priors. Each agent can have a different pre-agent, but each agent’s prior should be consistent with his pre-agent’s &#8220;pre-prior,&#8221; in the sense that the prior equals the pre-prior conditional on the key piece of information that distinguishes them: which agents actually get which priors. The main result is that an agent can only have a different prior if his pre-agent believed the process that produced his prior was special. (more) [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Each agent is asked to consider the information situation of a &#8220;pre-agent&#8221; who is not sure which agents will get which priors. Each agent can have a different pre-agent, but each agent’s prior should be consistent with his pre-agent’s &#8220;pre-prior,&#8221; in the sense that the prior equals the pre-prior conditional on the key piece of information that distinguishes them: which agents actually get which priors. The main result is that an agent can only have a different prior if his pre-agent believed the process that produced his prior was special. (more) [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Tim Fowler</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/why_common_prio.html#comment-451572</link>
		<dc:creator>Tim Fowler</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 30 Jul 2010 22:48:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/12/why-common-priors.html#comment-451572</guid>
		<description>Hal Finney - Re: &quot;More complex possibilities get lower probability than simpler ones.&quot;  That might be a reasonable rule of thumb, but it hardly seems like a universal prior, or the basis for having rational priors all match.  People might reasonable disagree, or assuming they do agree, I still don&#039;t think its enough.  There is no simple and totally adequate measure of complexity of a possibility that I can think of.  And if you had one different people who agreed that the more complex one&#039;s where less likely, could still have disagreements about how much less likely, each &quot;unit&quot; of extra complexity makes a possibility.  Also if you assume this as your criteria, does that mean that equally complex possibilities are always equally likely?  That doesn&#039;t make a lot of sense to me.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hal Finney &#8211; Re: &#8220;More complex possibilities get lower probability than simpler ones.&#8221;  That might be a reasonable rule of thumb, but it hardly seems like a universal prior, or the basis for having rational priors all match.  People might reasonable disagree, or assuming they do agree, I still don&#8217;t think its enough.  There is no simple and totally adequate measure of complexity of a possibility that I can think of.  And if you had one different people who agreed that the more complex one&#8217;s where less likely, could still have disagreements about how much less likely, each &#8220;unit&#8221; of extra complexity makes a possibility.  Also if you assume this as your criteria, does that mean that equally complex possibilities are always equally likely?  That doesn&#8217;t make a lot of sense to me.</p>
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		<title>By: Robin Hanson</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/why_common_prio.html#comment-423475</link>
		<dc:creator>Robin Hanson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Jan 2007 14:33:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/12/why-common-priors.html#comment-423475</guid>
		<description>Wei, it make be clear to you that my assumption &quot;is equivalent to saying that all pre-agents have the same pre-prior&quot;, but it is not at all clear to me.  I think I could come up with a counter example - can you come up with a proof of this equivalence?
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Wei, it make be clear to you that my assumption &#8220;is equivalent to saying that all pre-agents have the same pre-prior&#8221;, but it is not at all clear to me.  I think I could come up with a counter example &#8211; can you come up with a proof of this equivalence?</p>
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		<title>By: Wei Dai</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/why_common_prio.html#comment-423474</link>
		<dc:creator>Wei Dai</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Jan 2007 07:27:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/12/why-common-priors.html#comment-423474</guid>
		<description>Ok, I think I know what is going on here. Robin&#039;s &quot;pre-rationality&quot; assumption is that each agent&#039;s pre-prior, when conditioned on the assignment of priors, equals the prior that was &quot;assigned&quot; to him. This means that the &quot;assignment of priors&quot; in this assumption cannot be the assignment of priors by nature that I talked about earlier in my restatement of the main idea, since the nature-provided priors must contain randomness that wouldn&#039;t survive this update process.

Instead, the &quot;assigned&quot; prior (the one that the assumption refers to) must actually be an agent&#039;s pre-prior updated by nature&#039;s assignment of priors. Only then would updating the pre-prior by this &quot;assigned&quot; prior give you back the &quot;assigned&quot; prior. (I put &quot;assigned&quot; in quotes, because these priors are not actually assigned in the normal sense of the word.)

At this point it becomes clear that Robin&#039;s other assumption, that each pre-agent does not think his &quot;assigned&quot; prior has a special origin, is equivalent to saying that all pre-agents have the same pre-prior. After all, if you have a pre-prior different from everyone else, then your &quot;assigned&quot; prior is special, since it is just the updated version of your special pre-prior.

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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ok, I think I know what is going on here. Robin&#8217;s &#8220;pre-rationality&#8221; assumption is that each agent&#8217;s pre-prior, when conditioned on the assignment of priors, equals the prior that was &#8220;assigned&#8221; to him. This means that the &#8220;assignment of priors&#8221; in this assumption cannot be the assignment of priors by nature that I talked about earlier in my restatement of the main idea, since the nature-provided priors must contain randomness that wouldn&#8217;t survive this update process.</p>
<p>Instead, the &#8220;assigned&#8221; prior (the one that the assumption refers to) must actually be an agent&#8217;s pre-prior updated by nature&#8217;s assignment of priors. Only then would updating the pre-prior by this &#8220;assigned&#8221; prior give you back the &#8220;assigned&#8221; prior. (I put &#8220;assigned&#8221; in quotes, because these priors are not actually assigned in the normal sense of the word.)</p>
<p>At this point it becomes clear that Robin&#8217;s other assumption, that each pre-agent does not think his &#8220;assigned&#8221; prior has a special origin, is equivalent to saying that all pre-agents have the same pre-prior. After all, if you have a pre-prior different from everyone else, then your &#8220;assigned&#8221; prior is special, since it is just the updated version of your special pre-prior.</p>
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		<title>By: Robin Hanson</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/why_common_prio.html#comment-423473</link>
		<dc:creator>Robin Hanson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 01 Jan 2007 14:16:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/12/why-common-priors.html#comment-423473</guid>
		<description>Wei, the whole point of math is that one&#039;s assumptions and conclusion can be described concisely, even if the proof has more detail.  I&#039;ve proven that common priors follow from believing your origins are not special.  It may be that such a belief also constrains the pre-priors; I don&#039;t know if so or not, but that would be an interesting question to explore.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Wei, the whole point of math is that one&#8217;s assumptions and conclusion can be described concisely, even if the proof has more detail.  I&#8217;ve proven that common priors follow from believing your origins are not special.  It may be that such a belief also constrains the pre-priors; I don&#8217;t know if so or not, but that would be an interesting question to explore.</p>
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		<title>By: Wei Dai</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/why_common_prio.html#comment-423472</link>
		<dc:creator>Wei Dai</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 01 Jan 2007 13:58:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/12/why-common-priors.html#comment-423472</guid>
		<description>In the astronomers example, suppose one astronmer has a pre-prior that assigns a higher probability to the universe being open than the other&#039;s pre-prior. Even if they both agree that the nature-provided priors are not special and give no information about the actual world on this issue, wouldn&#039;t they still end up with different post-update priors just from the pre-priors being different?
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In the astronomers example, suppose one astronmer has a pre-prior that assigns a higher probability to the universe being open than the other&#8217;s pre-prior. Even if they both agree that the nature-provided priors are not special and give no information about the actual world on this issue, wouldn&#8217;t they still end up with different post-update priors just from the pre-priors being different?</p>
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		<title>By: Robin Hanson</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/why_common_prio.html#comment-423471</link>
		<dc:creator>Robin Hanson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 01 Jan 2007 12:38:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/12/why-common-priors.html#comment-423471</guid>
		<description>Wei, your restatement looks fine to me, and no we need not assume pre-agents have the same pre-prior.  We need only assume that your pre-prior does not think that your prior had a special origin.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Wei, your restatement looks fine to me, and no we need not assume pre-agents have the same pre-prior.  We need only assume that your pre-prior does not think that your prior had a special origin.</p>
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		<title>By: Wei Dai</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/why_common_prio.html#comment-423470</link>
		<dc:creator>Wei Dai</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 01 Jan 2007 11:24:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/12/why-common-priors.html#comment-423470</guid>
		<description>I think I&#039;m starting to get it. Let me restate the main idea, and someone let me know if I got it right.

Human beings are not born as generic reasoners without any information about the world we live in. Instead evolution has provided us with a prior that is partially optimized for this world. However since evolution is random and unfinished, some aspects of this prior are arbitrary. Robin&#039;s idea is that we can remove the randomness and keep only the useful information in the prior by taking the nature-provided prior as the first data point of a generic reasoner with a generic prior (which Robin calls a pre-prior, and which truly has no information about the world), instead of adopting it directly as the prior.

If I&#039;ve understood it correctly so far, my remaining question is, is it assumed that all of the pre-agents have the same pre-prior? It seems to me that this updating process will remove the arbitrary differences in the nature-provided priors, but differences in the pre-priors continue to be reflected in the post-update priors. Is that correct?
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think I&#8217;m starting to get it. Let me restate the main idea, and someone let me know if I got it right.</p>
<p>Human beings are not born as generic reasoners without any information about the world we live in. Instead evolution has provided us with a prior that is partially optimized for this world. However since evolution is random and unfinished, some aspects of this prior are arbitrary. Robin&#8217;s idea is that we can remove the randomness and keep only the useful information in the prior by taking the nature-provided prior as the first data point of a generic reasoner with a generic prior (which Robin calls a pre-prior, and which truly has no information about the world), instead of adopting it directly as the prior.</p>
<p>If I&#8217;ve understood it correctly so far, my remaining question is, is it assumed that all of the pre-agents have the same pre-prior? It seems to me that this updating process will remove the arbitrary differences in the nature-provided priors, but differences in the pre-priors continue to be reflected in the post-update priors. Is that correct?</p>
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		<title>By: conchis</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/why_common_prio.html#comment-423469</link>
		<dc:creator>conchis</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 31 Dec 2006 12:15:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/12/why-common-priors.html#comment-423469</guid>
		<description>Nicholas - the problem with your proof is that it assumes what it sets out to prove. The error lies in the claim &quot;each is you, so Robin is x and Robin is y&quot;. The point is precisely to deny that Robin(t) and Robin(t+s) are identical, and so x=Robin(t) and y=Robin(t+s) are not identical either.

Now, you might think that the reasons for denying &quot;Robin(t) is identical to Robin(t+s)&quot; are bad ones, but I&#039;d suggest you read Parfit on this. In any event, you&#039;re a far cry from establishing the contradiction you claim.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Nicholas &#8211; the problem with your proof is that it assumes what it sets out to prove. The error lies in the claim &#8220;each is you, so Robin is x and Robin is y&#8221;. The point is precisely to deny that Robin(t) and Robin(t+s) are identical, and so x=Robin(t) and y=Robin(t+s) are not identical either.</p>
<p>Now, you might think that the reasons for denying &#8220;Robin(t) is identical to Robin(t+s)&#8221; are bad ones, but I&#8217;d suggest you read Parfit on this. In any event, you&#8217;re a far cry from establishing the contradiction you claim.</p>
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		<title>By: Robin Hanson</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/why_common_prio.html#comment-423468</link>
		<dc:creator>Robin Hanson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 30 Dec 2006 19:01:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/12/why-common-priors.html#comment-423468</guid>
		<description>Wei, preferences are about you, beliefs are about the world. Beliefs should only change when the world or your info about it changes, but not otherwise change when you change.  Regarding your second comment, I claim that if you find nature has assigned you a prior which violates a rationality constraint, you should reject it and replace it with a better one.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Wei, preferences are about you, beliefs are about the world. Beliefs should only change when the world or your info about it changes, but not otherwise change when you change.  Regarding your second comment, I claim that if you find nature has assigned you a prior which violates a rationality constraint, you should reject it and replace it with a better one.</p>
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