http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/does_profit_rat.html Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future. Sun, 12 Feb 2012 02:20:49 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.3 http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/does_profit_rat.html#comment-424090 Robin Hanson Tue, 05 Dec 2006 10:24:52 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/12/does-profit-rate-insight-best.html#comment-424090 Paul, there are several possible reasons to declare predictions, but this paper doesn't care about the reason, it is looking at the consequences of such declarations. Paul, there are several possible reasons to declare predictions, but this paper doesn’t care about the reason, it is looking at the consequences of such declarations.

]]> http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/does_profit_rat.html#comment-424089 Paul Gowder Tue, 05 Dec 2006 05:42:56 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/12/does-profit-rate-insight-best.html#comment-424089 Hmm... if there's an active prediction market, why would (competent) predictors ever want to (honestly) declare their predictions? Or is the idea here that they'd work something like the people who publish stock picking advice now -- that there'd be a layer of the prediction market that finds it more profitable to sell their opinions than to bet on them? (Does anyone know of any work comparing the records of the best of those public analysts to the best traders who don't declare their picks?) Hmm… if there’s an active prediction market, why would (competent) predictors ever want to (honestly) declare their predictions? Or is the idea here that they’d work something like the people who publish stock picking advice now — that there’d be a layer of the prediction market that finds it more profitable to sell their opinions than to bet on them? (Does anyone know of any work comparing the records of the best of those public analysts to the best traders who don’t declare their picks?)

]]> http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/does_profit_rat.html#comment-424088 Robin Hanson Tue, 05 Dec 2006 02:32:15 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/12/does-profit-rate-insight-best.html#comment-424088 Paul, predictors can just declare their predictions, which are then later collected and compared with the true answers, producing an accuracy score. Paul, predictors can just declare their predictions, which are then later collected and compared with the true answers, producing an accuracy score.

]]> http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/does_profit_rat.html#comment-424087 Paul Gowder Tue, 05 Dec 2006 00:32:47 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/12/does-profit-rate-insight-best.html#comment-424087 How are predictors revealing their predictions other than through their bets? How are predictors revealing their predictions other than through their bets?

]]> http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/does_profit_rat.html#comment-424086 Robin Hanson Sun, 03 Dec 2006 19:41:10 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/12/does-profit-rate-insight-best.html#comment-424086 Yan, it is a technical question, so try following the link first and see if that explains it well enough. Yan, it is a technical question, so try following the link first and see if that explains it well enough.

]]> http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/does_profit_rat.html#comment-424085 Yan Li Sun, 03 Dec 2006 16:01:57 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/12/does-profit-rate-insight-best.html#comment-424085 This might be too technical a subject for me to put my mind around it... How could a zero ask-bid spread yield a profit score equivalent to a statistical (or probability) score? Traders won't trade when his/her profit forecast is negative… This might be too technical a subject for me to put my mind around it… How could a zero ask-bid spread yield a profit score equivalent to a statistical (or probability) score? Traders won’t trade when his/her profit forecast is negative…

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