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	<title>Comments on: What exactly is bias?</title>
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	<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/11/what_exactly_is.html</link>
	<description>Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future.</description>
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		<title>By: Guy Kahane</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/11/what_exactly_is.html#comment-424371</link>
		<dc:creator>Guy Kahane</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 28 Nov 2006 15:56:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/11/what-exactly-is-bias.html#comment-424371</guid>
		<description>There are various ways in which people can be help culpable for having unjustified or false beliefs, but, whether or not we want to use the term &#039;bias&#039; to cover the whole range, I wouldn&#039;t leave out, as Nick S is suggesting, factors that shape the direction of inquiry, and focus only on those that shape the formation of belief given a body of evidence.

Intellectual laziness is one example. If someone heard about this blog but prefers not to read it, because he doesn&#039;t care much about having truer beliefs, then this doesn&#039;t automatically relieve him of responsibility for having biases beliefs.

An even better example is self-deception. Self-deception is surely a form of bias, but self-deception operates not only by leading a person to believe falsely in the face of contrary evidence, but also (perhaps primarily) by causing him to be &#039;lazy&#039; in gathering certain kinds of information that might force him to correct his beliefs.

Perhaps you&#039;d want to leave intellectual laziness out because it operates across the board. But intellectual laziness may be focused even when there&#039;s no self-deceptive motivation at work. Perhaps someone just developed the habit of avoiding reading articles about science -- perhaps such an article bored him a long time ago, although reading such articles wouldn&#039;t bore him now or even take a great effort. Won&#039;t we say that this is a bias?
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There are various ways in which people can be help culpable for having unjustified or false beliefs, but, whether or not we want to use the term &#8216;bias&#8217; to cover the whole range, I wouldn&#8217;t leave out, as Nick S is suggesting, factors that shape the direction of inquiry, and focus only on those that shape the formation of belief given a body of evidence.</p>
<p>Intellectual laziness is one example. If someone heard about this blog but prefers not to read it, because he doesn&#8217;t care much about having truer beliefs, then this doesn&#8217;t automatically relieve him of responsibility for having biases beliefs.</p>
<p>An even better example is self-deception. Self-deception is surely a form of bias, but self-deception operates not only by leading a person to believe falsely in the face of contrary evidence, but also (perhaps primarily) by causing him to be &#8216;lazy&#8217; in gathering certain kinds of information that might force him to correct his beliefs.</p>
<p>Perhaps you&#8217;d want to leave intellectual laziness out because it operates across the board. But intellectual laziness may be focused even when there&#8217;s no self-deceptive motivation at work. Perhaps someone just developed the habit of avoiding reading articles about science &#8212; perhaps such an article bored him a long time ago, although reading such articles wouldn&#8217;t bore him now or even take a great effort. Won&#8217;t we say that this is a bias?</p>
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		<title>By: Nicholas Shackel</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/11/what_exactly_is.html#comment-424370</link>
		<dc:creator>Nicholas Shackel</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 28 Nov 2006 13:26:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/11/what-exactly-is-bias.html#comment-424370</guid>
		<description>I&#039;m not sure if we&#039;re disagreeing about the nature of practical rationality (probably) or laziness, but we are certainly disagreeing about what is systematic in bias.

I take laziness to be aversion to work, and aversion to something influences what is practically rational for someone.

General intellectual laziness would be likely to lead to  generalised inaccuracy in belief, (but cf Bishop, Michael. “In Praise of Epistemic Irresponsibility: How Lazy and Ignorant Can You Be?” in Synthese, 2000, 122: 179-208, available at http://www.niu.edu/phil/~bishop/Research.shtml) but general inaccuracy of belief is not bias and is not what I mean by systematicity when talking about bias. I mean either irrationally skewed belief about some topic of knowledge or specific kinds of error in the use of specific kinds of evidence.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m not sure if we&#8217;re disagreeing about the nature of practical rationality (probably) or laziness, but we are certainly disagreeing about what is systematic in bias.</p>
<p>I take laziness to be aversion to work, and aversion to something influences what is practically rational for someone.</p>
<p>General intellectual laziness would be likely to lead to  generalised inaccuracy in belief, (but cf Bishop, Michael. “In Praise of Epistemic Irresponsibility: How Lazy and Ignorant Can You Be?” in Synthese, 2000, 122: 179-208, available at <a href="http://www.niu.edu/phil/~bishop/Research.shtml" rel="nofollow">http://www.niu.edu/phil/~bishop/Research.shtml</a>) but general inaccuracy of belief is not bias and is not what I mean by systematicity when talking about bias. I mean either irrationally skewed belief about some topic of knowledge or specific kinds of error in the use of specific kinds of evidence.</p>
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		<title>By: Nick Bostrom</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/11/what_exactly_is.html#comment-424369</link>
		<dc:creator>Nick Bostrom</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 27 Nov 2006 17:44:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/11/what-exactly-is-bias.html#comment-424369</guid>
		<description>Nick S,
In my example of Bob, I meant that it would be practically rational for him to do more intellectual work, not that his laziness would raise the cost of intellectual work so much that it would not be practially rational for him to do it. I also meant that he systematically errs on doing too little intellectual work.

Now, it might be the case that this means that Bob has a bias against doing intellectual work, although in at least one sense of the word I think he would not be biased if his systematic error did not result &quot;directly&quot; from the influence of some factor whose function is not to maximize accuracy of belief.

More importantly, however, even if Bob had a bias about the rewards of intellectual work, I don&#039;t think that would mean that he was also biased about all other topics which are such that his beliefs about these other topics would change if he did more intellectual work. It would seem that on your explication Bob&#039;s possible bias about the merits of intellectual work would spill over to make him generally biased about almost everything.

Robin, yes bias does seem closely tied up with &quot;illegitimate considerations&quot; - I think we are playing around with different attempts to develop and clarify this general idea.



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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Nick S,<br />
In my example of Bob, I meant that it would be practically rational for him to do more intellectual work, not that his laziness would raise the cost of intellectual work so much that it would not be practially rational for him to do it. I also meant that he systematically errs on doing too little intellectual work.</p>
<p>Now, it might be the case that this means that Bob has a bias against doing intellectual work, although in at least one sense of the word I think he would not be biased if his systematic error did not result &#8220;directly&#8221; from the influence of some factor whose function is not to maximize accuracy of belief.</p>
<p>More importantly, however, even if Bob had a bias about the rewards of intellectual work, I don&#8217;t think that would mean that he was also biased about all other topics which are such that his beliefs about these other topics would change if he did more intellectual work. It would seem that on your explication Bob&#8217;s possible bias about the merits of intellectual work would spill over to make him generally biased about almost everything.</p>
<p>Robin, yes bias does seem closely tied up with &#8220;illegitimate considerations&#8221; &#8211; I think we are playing around with different attempts to develop and clarify this general idea.</p>
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		<title>By: Nicholas Shackel</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/11/what_exactly_is.html#comment-424368</link>
		<dc:creator>Nicholas Shackel</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 27 Nov 2006 06:16:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/11/what-exactly-is-bias.html#comment-424368</guid>
		<description>On Nick Bs interpretation: Also can be irrational if it were theoretically rational for us to acquire further evidence. Expected cost includes anything we take as costs, and so theoretical rationality can impinge on acquiring further evidence in two ways: lowering the probability of p so increasing expected costs of being wrong; wanting strongly to know whether p can raise expected cost of being wrong by raising cost of being wrong.

Bob&#039;s not biased under my defn. Bob&#039;s intellectually lazy so this increases the expected cost to him of acquiring new evidence. Under my defn: 1. He might not be irrational in belief because laziness mades the expected cost of evidence acquisition outweigh his expected cost of being wrong. 2. He might be irrational in belief but not biased because the irrationality is not systematic.


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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>On Nick Bs interpretation: Also can be irrational if it were theoretically rational for us to acquire further evidence. Expected cost includes anything we take as costs, and so theoretical rationality can impinge on acquiring further evidence in two ways: lowering the probability of p so increasing expected costs of being wrong; wanting strongly to know whether p can raise expected cost of being wrong by raising cost of being wrong.</p>
<p>Bob&#8217;s not biased under my defn. Bob&#8217;s intellectually lazy so this increases the expected cost to him of acquiring new evidence. Under my defn: 1. He might not be irrational in belief because laziness mades the expected cost of evidence acquisition outweigh his expected cost of being wrong. 2. He might be irrational in belief but not biased because the irrationality is not systematic.</p>
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		<title>By: Robin Hanson</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/11/what_exactly_is.html#comment-424367</link>
		<dc:creator>Robin Hanson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 26 Nov 2006 23:19:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/11/what-exactly-is-bias.html#comment-424367</guid>
		<description>My mind keeps coming back to trying to elaborate a counterfactual where my goals put more weight on reducing belief errors and less weight on things like wanting people to like and respect me.  Considerations that would remain just as important in this counterfactual seem legitimate, and considerations that would be less important seem illegitimate.  So costs of time and money seem legitimate, while costs of people liking me less seem illegitimate.  &quot;Biases&quot; seem to me to be closely tied up with these illegitimate considerations.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>My mind keeps coming back to trying to elaborate a counterfactual where my goals put more weight on reducing belief errors and less weight on things like wanting people to like and respect me.  Considerations that would remain just as important in this counterfactual seem legitimate, and considerations that would be less important seem illegitimate.  So costs of time and money seem legitimate, while costs of people liking me less seem illegitimate.  &#8220;Biases&#8221; seem to me to be closely tied up with these illegitimate considerations.</p>
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		<title>By: Robin Hanson</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/11/what_exactly_is.html#comment-424366</link>
		<dc:creator>Robin Hanson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 26 Nov 2006 23:13:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/11/what-exactly-is-bias.html#comment-424366</guid>
		<description>I&#039;ve been away for the day and I see you&#039;ve all been busy! :)  The last concrete proposal I see here is  &quot;a factor that systematically shapes our beliefs whose function is neither to maximize epistemic accuracy nor to conserve intellectual resources.&quot;

The problem here is clarifying &quot;intellectual resource.&quot;  If I think better of my friends so they will like me more, and then pass more relevant info to me, is that good resource management or bias?
It seems that there is an intuition here of legitimate vs. illegitimate costs one may consider.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;ve been away for the day and I see you&#8217;ve all been busy! <img src='http://www.overcomingbias.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':)' class='wp-smiley' />   The last concrete proposal I see here is  &#8220;a factor that systematically shapes our beliefs whose function is neither to maximize epistemic accuracy nor to conserve intellectual resources.&#8221;</p>
<p>The problem here is clarifying &#8220;intellectual resource.&#8221;  If I think better of my friends so they will like me more, and then pass more relevant info to me, is that good resource management or bias?<br />
It seems that there is an intuition here of legitimate vs. illegitimate costs one may consider.</p>
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		<title>By: Nick Bostrom</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/11/what_exactly_is.html#comment-424365</link>
		<dc:creator>Nick Bostrom</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 26 Nov 2006 22:03:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/11/what-exactly-is-bias.html#comment-424365</guid>
		<description>Nick S, Guy,

I take your point that conserving intellectual resources is not the only non-rational non-biasing driver. Inserting &quot;directly&quot; as Guy suggests might help.

The idea was that when diagnosing bias we should set aside shapers of our beliefs when those shapers are things like lack of time, effort, areas of interest, computational limitations etc. These shapers, one might say, are not trying to shape our beliefs in any particular way. They are, in some sense which I&#039;m not yet sure how to express exactly, neutral vis-a-vis the content of out opinions: their function is not to make us believe p rather than not-p, or vice versa, although they may have indirect effects on what we believe by causing us to spend more time acquiring or evaluating evidence on some topics rather than others. We can use Guy&#039;s term &quot;directly&quot; as a placeholder for this idea, but I think it would be possible to replace this with a more precise explanation.

Nick S proposes to define bias as systematically irrational belief, where a belief can be irrational if it would have been practically rational for us to have acquired more evidence. (Is this a correct interpretation of what he said?) One worry I have about this is that it might indicate bias too often. Bob is intellectually lazy. It would be practically rational for him to acquire more evidence (and do more thinking) about a wide range of topics. It would then seem on NickS&#039;s account that most of Bob&#039;s beliefs on these topics are irrational (because his probability assignments would change if he investigated more). Nevertheless, all parts of Bob&#039;s brain, insofar as they work on forming beliefs at all, aim exclusively for the truth; and Bob is perfectly calibrated. His intellectual machine uses all the time and fuel it gets with optimal efficiency to generate accurate beliefs. It seems to me that what is wrong with Bob is not that he is biased.


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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Nick S, Guy,</p>
<p>I take your point that conserving intellectual resources is not the only non-rational non-biasing driver. Inserting &#8220;directly&#8221; as Guy suggests might help.</p>
<p>The idea was that when diagnosing bias we should set aside shapers of our beliefs when those shapers are things like lack of time, effort, areas of interest, computational limitations etc. These shapers, one might say, are not trying to shape our beliefs in any particular way. They are, in some sense which I&#8217;m not yet sure how to express exactly, neutral vis-a-vis the content of out opinions: their function is not to make us believe p rather than not-p, or vice versa, although they may have indirect effects on what we believe by causing us to spend more time acquiring or evaluating evidence on some topics rather than others. We can use Guy&#8217;s term &#8220;directly&#8221; as a placeholder for this idea, but I think it would be possible to replace this with a more precise explanation.</p>
<p>Nick S proposes to define bias as systematically irrational belief, where a belief can be irrational if it would have been practically rational for us to have acquired more evidence. (Is this a correct interpretation of what he said?) One worry I have about this is that it might indicate bias too often. Bob is intellectually lazy. It would be practically rational for him to acquire more evidence (and do more thinking) about a wide range of topics. It would then seem on NickS&#8217;s account that most of Bob&#8217;s beliefs on these topics are irrational (because his probability assignments would change if he investigated more). Nevertheless, all parts of Bob&#8217;s brain, insofar as they work on forming beliefs at all, aim exclusively for the truth; and Bob is perfectly calibrated. His intellectual machine uses all the time and fuel it gets with optimal efficiency to generate accurate beliefs. It seems to me that what is wrong with Bob is not that he is biased.</p>
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		<title>By: Nicholas Shackel</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/11/what_exactly_is.html#comment-424364</link>
		<dc:creator>Nicholas Shackel</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 26 Nov 2006 21:32:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/11/what-exactly-is-bias.html#comment-424364</guid>
		<description>We should probably also distinguish subjective and objective bias. My post was about subjective bias, but objectively biased belief could probably be similarly defined in terms of systematic untruth. You might be unfortunately placed or just not know enough without any reason to know more, and so be in possession of evidence which is systematically misleading.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>We should probably also distinguish subjective and objective bias. My post was about subjective bias, but objectively biased belief could probably be similarly defined in terms of systematic untruth. You might be unfortunately placed or just not know enough without any reason to know more, and so be in possession of evidence which is systematically misleading.</p>
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		<title>By: Guy Kahane</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/11/what_exactly_is.html#comment-424363</link>
		<dc:creator>Guy Kahane</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 26 Nov 2006 20:58:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/11/what-exactly-is-bias.html#comment-424363</guid>
		<description>Oh, I now see that Nick S&#039;s comment already contains my main point. Just to prevent misunderstanding: my previous comment was aimed at Nick B!
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Oh, I now see that Nick S&#8217;s comment already contains my main point. Just to prevent misunderstanding: my previous comment was aimed at Nick B!</p>
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		<title>By: Guy Kahane</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/11/what_exactly_is.html#comment-424362</link>
		<dc:creator>Guy Kahane</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 26 Nov 2006 20:55:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/11/what-exactly-is-bias.html#comment-424362</guid>
		<description>Nick, this definition still wouldn&#039;t do, due to the element I mentioned in my comments on Robin&#039;s later post. Our interests and values are presumably a factor that can systematically shapes our beliefs and whose &#039;function&#039; is neither to maximise epistemic accuracy nor to conserve intellectual resources. Interests and values systematically shape our beliefs because they determine the direction of inquiry, but this need not involve any bias (whereas wishful thinking does). So a further qualification is needed. (Would adding &#039;DIRECTLY shapes our beliefs&#039; help? But &#039;directly&#039; is not the clearest notion.)

(Another point: bias can be a property of different things. When we ascribe bias to a person, I think we are usually also ascribing to that person a measure of epistemic blame. This is not so when we ascribe bias to sub-systems or capacities, e.g. the perceptual system or one&#039;s capacity to estimate probabilities. Finally, bias can be a property of one&#039;s evidence (&#039;a biased sample&#039;) even when one isn&#039;t in a position to be aware of this and all of one&#039;s relevant sub-systems/capacities are in perfect order.)


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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Nick, this definition still wouldn&#8217;t do, due to the element I mentioned in my comments on Robin&#8217;s later post. Our interests and values are presumably a factor that can systematically shapes our beliefs and whose &#8216;function&#8217; is neither to maximise epistemic accuracy nor to conserve intellectual resources. Interests and values systematically shape our beliefs because they determine the direction of inquiry, but this need not involve any bias (whereas wishful thinking does). So a further qualification is needed. (Would adding &#8216;DIRECTLY shapes our beliefs&#8217; help? But &#8216;directly&#8217; is not the clearest notion.)</p>
<p>(Another point: bias can be a property of different things. When we ascribe bias to a person, I think we are usually also ascribing to that person a measure of epistemic blame. This is not so when we ascribe bias to sub-systems or capacities, e.g. the perceptual system or one&#8217;s capacity to estimate probabilities. Finally, bias can be a property of one&#8217;s evidence (&#8216;a biased sample&#8217;) even when one isn&#8217;t in a position to be aware of this and all of one&#8217;s relevant sub-systems/capacities are in perfect order.)</p>
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