Comments on: The wisdom of bromides http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/11/the_wisdom_of_b.html Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future. Sat, 11 Feb 2012 23:23:58 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.3 By: Said Achmiz http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/11/the_wisdom_of_b.html#comment-424486 Said Achmiz Fri, 12 Sep 2008 05:10:56 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/11/the-wisdom-of-bromides.html#comment-424486 An example of someone wishing they had spent more time at the office, in our society, might be a woman who has spent much of her life as a housewife, but wishes she had instead made a career for herself. Such a regret may occur late in life or, for instance, when a woman marries early, then has marriage difficulties, finds herself divorced, and realizes she has no career to fall back on once her previous support mechanism (a husband) is gone. She might then wish she had spent less time devoting herself to her family and more time developing a career. (To my knowledge, this sort of situation is a fairly common barrier for women wishing to leave unsatisfying or abusive marriages.) An example of someone wishing they had spent more time at the office, in our society, might be a woman who has spent much of her life as a housewife, but wishes she had instead made a career for herself. Such a regret may occur late in life or, for instance, when a woman marries early, then has marriage difficulties, finds herself divorced, and realizes she has no career to fall back on once her previous support mechanism (a husband) is gone. She might then wish she had spent less time devoting herself to her family and more time developing a career. (To my knowledge, this sort of situation is a fairly common barrier for women wishing to leave unsatisfying or abusive marriages.)

]]> By: just me http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/11/the_wisdom_of_b.html#comment-424485 just me Wed, 22 Nov 2006 22:10:25 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/11/the-wisdom-of-bromides.html#comment-424485 Suppose one day I play hooky from work, feigning illness. Then, my house catches on fire, and I am trapped by a fallen beam, and realize death is impending. At that point, I bet I'd wish that I'd spent more time -- i.e., that particular day -- at the office! :-) Closer to reality, I can see someone regretting a general lack of non-family achievement, whether career or other benchmark. But the bromide is probably true for most, and that's good enough. It serves the prupose of trying to counterbalance the present forces that arguably tilt too far in pushing us to work now, etc. Suppose one day I play hooky from work, feigning illness. Then, my house catches on fire, and I am trapped by a fallen beam, and realize death is impending.

At that point, I bet I’d wish that I’d spent more time — i.e., that particular day — at the office! :-)

Closer to reality, I can see someone regretting a general lack of non-family achievement, whether career or other benchmark. But the bromide is probably true for most, and that’s good enough. It serves the prupose of trying to counterbalance the present forces that arguably tilt too far in pushing us to work now, etc.

]]> By: Robin Hanson http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/11/the_wisdom_of_b.html#comment-424484 Robin Hanson Wed, 22 Nov 2006 14:10:58 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/11/the-wisdom-of-bromides.html#comment-424484 Andrew, we can find any words innocent of the charge of bias if we interpret them as being expressive excuses to talk, and only apparently speaking other things. But will the people speaking those words agree with that description? I should mention that we do have classic stories celebrating the long hours of exceptional artists, scientists, and social activists, stories which often accept even if they do not exactly celebrate the neglect of friends and family. But such acceptance is clearly not extented to the rest of us. Andrew, we can find any words innocent of the charge of bias if we interpret them as being expressive excuses to talk, and only apparently speaking other things. But will the people speaking those words agree with that description?

I should mention that we do have classic stories celebrating the long hours of exceptional artists, scientists, and social activists, stories which often accept even if they do not exactly celebrate the neglect of friends and family. But such acceptance is clearly not extented to the rest of us.

]]> By: Andrew Edwards http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/11/the_wisdom_of_b.html#comment-424483 Andrew Edwards Wed, 22 Nov 2006 13:27:57 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/11/the-wisdom-of-bromides.html#comment-424483 Hedgehog alert! Why do bromides have to have anything to do with bias at all? Isn't a simpler explanation that they give people non-controversial but wise-sounding devices to use in conversation? That, per Orwell, they're a pleasant substitute for the difficult work of creative thought? Hedgehog alert!

Why do bromides have to have anything to do with bias at all?

Isn’t a simpler explanation that they give people non-controversial but wise-sounding devices to use in conversation? That, per Orwell, they’re a pleasant substitute for the difficult work of creative thought?

]]> By: pdf23ds http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/11/the_wisdom_of_b.html#comment-424482 pdf23ds Tue, 21 Nov 2006 21:57:38 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/11/the-wisdom-of-bromides.html#comment-424482 But it seems to me that the family part is the charged part of the formulation. There're also complications regarding the type of job (the proverb brings to mind things like accountants and actuaries--what about musicians or writers?) and the desirability of your family (the idea being that if the person would spend more time at home they would be rewarded with the loving fellowship of their family, not something that will always hold). As for a movie, how about "Mr. & Mrs. Smith"? Did you have a larger point? But it seems to me that the family part is the charged part of the formulation. There’re also complications regarding the type of job (the proverb brings to mind things like accountants and actuaries–what about musicians or writers?) and the desirability of your family (the idea being that if the person would spend more time at home they would be rewarded with the loving fellowship of their family, not something that will always hold).

As for a movie, how about “Mr. & Mrs. Smith”?

Did you have a larger point?

]]> By: Robin Hanson http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/11/the_wisdom_of_b.html#comment-424481 Robin Hanson Tue, 21 Nov 2006 21:43:32 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/11/the-wisdom-of-bromides.html#comment-424481 Try to imagine a movie like "Click" but with the opposite moral, that the hero makes the mistake of spending too much effort on his family, and not enough effort on his work. Seems unlikely to me. Try to imagine a movie like “Click” but with the opposite moral, that the hero makes the mistake of spending too much effort on his family, and not enough effort on his work. Seems unlikely to me.

]]> By: pdf23ds http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/11/the_wisdom_of_b.html#comment-424480 pdf23ds Tue, 21 Nov 2006 20:43:22 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/11/the-wisdom-of-bromides.html#comment-424480 The deathbed workaholic proverb may not have an obvious complement, but that's probably only because it's been formulated in such a charged way. I bet you I could take out my Bible or a book of aphorisms and come of with something opposite of it. Something along the lines of "The early bird gets the worm." The deathbed workaholic proverb may not have an obvious complement, but that’s probably only because it’s been formulated in such a charged way. I bet you I could take out my Bible or a book of aphorisms and come of with something opposite of it. Something along the lines of “The early bird gets the worm.”

]]> By: Robin Hanson http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/11/the_wisdom_of_b.html#comment-424479 Robin Hanson Tue, 21 Nov 2006 19:56:30 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/11/the-wisdom-of-bromides.html#comment-424479 There is indeed wisdom in knowing about important parameters to consider when looking for errors in your decisions, and this seems a reasonable interpretation when we see pairs of proverbs warning against both too little and too much of something. But the proverb "no one on their deathbed regrets not having spent more time at the office" is directly denying that the errors are equally likely in both directions; it instead claims that there is an overall tendency in the errors, i.e., a bias. There is indeed wisdom in knowing about important parameters to consider when looking for errors in your decisions, and this seems a reasonable interpretation when we see pairs of proverbs warning against both too little and too much of something. But the proverb “no one on their deathbed regrets not having spent more time at the office” is directly denying that the errors are equally likely in both directions; it instead claims that there is an overall tendency in the errors, i.e., a bias.

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