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	<title>Comments on: Pascalian Meditations</title>
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	<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/11/pascalian_medit.html</link>
	<description>Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future.</description>
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		<title>By: Mike</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/11/pascalian_medit.html#comment-441466</link>
		<dc:creator>Mike</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 Jan 2010 00:35:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/11/pascalian-meditations.html#comment-441466</guid>
		<description>Mother of God.  Just take up meditation and look deeply into the mind instead of trying to figure out how society can be fixed.  You&#039;ll learn more.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Mother of God.  Just take up meditation and look deeply into the mind instead of trying to figure out how society can be fixed.  You&#8217;ll learn more.</p>
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		<title>By: Guy Kahane</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/11/pascalian_medit.html#comment-424238</link>
		<dc:creator>Guy Kahane</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 29 Nov 2006 19:32:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/11/pascalian-meditations.html#comment-424238</guid>
		<description>Let&#039;s distinguish the unclear sense in which this form of objection might apply to the project of overcoming epistemic bias, and the sense in which it is widely held to count against using consequentialism as a decision procedure. This view assumed we cannot be relied to overcome certain ingrained biases even if we wholeheartedly endorsed consequentialism. The claim isn&#039;t that we should follow certain non-consequentialist moral rules of thumb unless we&#039;re confident enough that we&#039;ve overcome these biases, in which case we SHOULD use consequentialism as our decision procedure.

As I said, this piece of philosophy involves some very large empirical claims that are usually made in an extremely sketchy way and without real evidence (not that there isn&#039;t much supporting evidence out there). One would have expected that, instead of feeling comfortable in the consensus that Hooker describes, consequentialists would take the question of whether these biases might be overcome more seriously.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Let&#8217;s distinguish the unclear sense in which this form of objection might apply to the project of overcoming epistemic bias, and the sense in which it is widely held to count against using consequentialism as a decision procedure. This view assumed we cannot be relied to overcome certain ingrained biases even if we wholeheartedly endorsed consequentialism. The claim isn&#8217;t that we should follow certain non-consequentialist moral rules of thumb unless we&#8217;re confident enough that we&#8217;ve overcome these biases, in which case we SHOULD use consequentialism as our decision procedure.</p>
<p>As I said, this piece of philosophy involves some very large empirical claims that are usually made in an extremely sketchy way and without real evidence (not that there isn&#8217;t much supporting evidence out there). One would have expected that, instead of feeling comfortable in the consensus that Hooker describes, consequentialists would take the question of whether these biases might be overcome more seriously.</p>
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		<title>By: Robin Hanson</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/11/pascalian_medit.html#comment-424237</link>
		<dc:creator>Robin Hanson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 29 Nov 2006 19:08:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/11/pascalian-meditations.html#comment-424237</guid>
		<description>OK, sure, we each prefer that other people follow a rule that says to treat people similarly, instead of giving people who are biased toward themselves the flexibility to treat themselves differently.  This isn&#039;t the same as thinking that we shouldn&#039;t try to correct any bias we see in ourselves.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>OK, sure, we each prefer that other people follow a rule that says to treat people similarly, instead of giving people who are biased toward themselves the flexibility to treat themselves differently.  This isn&#8217;t the same as thinking that we shouldn&#8217;t try to correct any bias we see in ourselves.</p>
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		<title>By: Guy Kahane</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/11/pascalian_medit.html#comment-424236</link>
		<dc:creator>Guy Kahane</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 29 Nov 2006 18:25:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/11/pascalian-meditations.html#comment-424236</guid>
		<description>Here’s a typical statement with a long list of further references:

“When confronted with that criterion of moral wrongness, many people naturally assume that the way to decide what to do is to apply the criterion, i.e.,

Act-consequentialist moral decision procedure: On each occasion, an agent should decide what to do by calculating which act would produce the most good.

However, no serious philosopher nowadays defends this decision procedure (Mill 1861, ch 2; Sidgwick 1907, pp. 405-6, 413, 489-90; Moore 1903, 162-4; Smart 1956, p. 346; 1973, pp. 43, 71; Bales 1971, pp. 257-65; Hare 1981; Parfit 1984, pp. 24-9, 31-43; Railton 1984, pp. 140-6, 152-3; Brink 1989, pp. 216-7, 256-62, 274-6; Pettit and Brennan 1986; Pettit 1991; 1994; 1997, 99-102, 156-61). There are a number of compelling consequentialist reasons why the act-consequentialist decision procedure would be counter-productive.

First, very often the agent does not have detailed information about what the consequences would be of various acts.

Second, obtaining such information would often involve greater costs than are at stake in the decision to be made.

Third, even if the agent had the information needed to make calculations, the agent might make mistakes in the calculations. (This is especially likely when the agent&#039;s natural biases intrude, or when the calculations are complex, or when they have to be made in a hurry.)

Fourth, there are what we might call expectation effects. Imagine a society in which people know that others are naturally biased towards themselves and towards their loved ones but are trying to make their every moral decision by calculating overall good. In such a society, each person might well fear that others will go around breaking promises, stealing, lying, and even assaulting whenever they convinced themselves that such acts would produce the greatest overall good. In such a society, people would not feel they could trust one another.”

(Brad Hooker, Rule-Consequentialism, Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)
http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/consequentialism-rule/

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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Here’s a typical statement with a long list of further references:</p>
<p>“When confronted with that criterion of moral wrongness, many people naturally assume that the way to decide what to do is to apply the criterion, i.e.,</p>
<p>Act-consequentialist moral decision procedure: On each occasion, an agent should decide what to do by calculating which act would produce the most good.</p>
<p>However, no serious philosopher nowadays defends this decision procedure (Mill 1861, ch 2; Sidgwick 1907, pp. 405-6, 413, 489-90; Moore 1903, 162-4; Smart 1956, p. 346; 1973, pp. 43, 71; Bales 1971, pp. 257-65; Hare 1981; Parfit 1984, pp. 24-9, 31-43; Railton 1984, pp. 140-6, 152-3; Brink 1989, pp. 216-7, 256-62, 274-6; Pettit and Brennan 1986; Pettit 1991; 1994; 1997, 99-102, 156-61). There are a number of compelling consequentialist reasons why the act-consequentialist decision procedure would be counter-productive.</p>
<p>First, very often the agent does not have detailed information about what the consequences would be of various acts.</p>
<p>Second, obtaining such information would often involve greater costs than are at stake in the decision to be made.</p>
<p>Third, even if the agent had the information needed to make calculations, the agent might make mistakes in the calculations. (This is especially likely when the agent&#8217;s natural biases intrude, or when the calculations are complex, or when they have to be made in a hurry.)</p>
<p>Fourth, there are what we might call expectation effects. Imagine a society in which people know that others are naturally biased towards themselves and towards their loved ones but are trying to make their every moral decision by calculating overall good. In such a society, each person might well fear that others will go around breaking promises, stealing, lying, and even assaulting whenever they convinced themselves that such acts would produce the greatest overall good. In such a society, people would not feel they could trust one another.”</p>
<p>(Brad Hooker, Rule-Consequentialism, Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)<br />
<a href="http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/consequentialism-rule/" rel="nofollow">http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/consequentialism-rule/</a></p>
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		<title>By: Robin Hanson</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/11/pascalian_medit.html#comment-424235</link>
		<dc:creator>Robin Hanson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 29 Nov 2006 17:25:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/11/pascalian-meditations.html#comment-424235</guid>
		<description>Guy, could you give a cite of someone who argues that act consequentialism is self-defeating due to pervasive human bias?  It would be interesting to see which biases in particular concern them.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Guy, could you give a cite of someone who argues that act consequentialism is self-defeating due to pervasive human bias?  It would be interesting to see which biases in particular concern them.</p>
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		<title>By: Eliezer Yudkowsky</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/11/pascalian_medit.html#comment-424234</link>
		<dc:creator>Eliezer Yudkowsky</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 29 Nov 2006 15:45:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/11/pascalian-meditations.html#comment-424234</guid>
		<description>When people object to consequentialism on consequentialist grounds, they usually mean something like:  &quot;Consequentialism with short-term horizons will produce poor long-term effects&quot; or &quot;When fallible human beings try to implement a consequentialist system as cognitive reasoning, this produces poor long-term effects.&quot;  Such objections accept consequentialism as a criterion over cognitive ethical systems.  (Contrast to an objection that consequential reasoning is too cold-blooded and should therefore be forbidden to human beings as non-virtuous, even if it produces pleasant real-world results.)  The notion that consequentialism is actually self-contradictory or self-defeating seems to me to rest on poor phrasing.

Similarly, regarding:  &quot;There are many cases where we would better reduce bias overall if we adopt policies that don&#039;t aim to directly minimise bias in each particular case.&quot;

I would say something like:  &quot;There are policies for reducing bias that are consequentially superior to the policy of (a) enumerating each individual cognitive bias and asking (b) fallible human beings with (c) strong emotional stakes in the debate to point out what (d) seems to be a match between some argument and a known bias with (e) a strong social convention that (f) any such apparent match is deontologically forbidden and (g) constitutes a crushing blow in the debate.&quot;

On the other hand, I&#039;m not sure there&#039;s any case where, as a matter of minimizing your own, individual biases - trying to cast out the log in your own eye - it doesn&#039;t make sense to try to minimze, in each case, anything that you judge to be a bias; provided that you do exercise some discretion in judgment of yourself and do some (but not too much) reasoning about what is or isn&#039;t a bias.  In a heated public debate, I worry that arguments about what is or isn&#039;t a bias will cripple any benefit that might be derived.  In the silence of our own minds we might do better, given a humanly realistic amount of self-honesty.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>When people object to consequentialism on consequentialist grounds, they usually mean something like:  &#8220;Consequentialism with short-term horizons will produce poor long-term effects&#8221; or &#8220;When fallible human beings try to implement a consequentialist system as cognitive reasoning, this produces poor long-term effects.&#8221;  Such objections accept consequentialism as a criterion over cognitive ethical systems.  (Contrast to an objection that consequential reasoning is too cold-blooded and should therefore be forbidden to human beings as non-virtuous, even if it produces pleasant real-world results.)  The notion that consequentialism is actually self-contradictory or self-defeating seems to me to rest on poor phrasing.</p>
<p>Similarly, regarding:  &#8220;There are many cases where we would better reduce bias overall if we adopt policies that don&#8217;t aim to directly minimise bias in each particular case.&#8221;</p>
<p>I would say something like:  &#8220;There are policies for reducing bias that are consequentially superior to the policy of (a) enumerating each individual cognitive bias and asking (b) fallible human beings with (c) strong emotional stakes in the debate to point out what (d) seems to be a match between some argument and a known bias with (e) a strong social convention that (f) any such apparent match is deontologically forbidden and (g) constitutes a crushing blow in the debate.&#8221;</p>
<p>On the other hand, I&#8217;m not sure there&#8217;s any case where, as a matter of minimizing your own, individual biases &#8211; trying to cast out the log in your own eye &#8211; it doesn&#8217;t make sense to try to minimze, in each case, anything that you judge to be a bias; provided that you do exercise some discretion in judgment of yourself and do some (but not too much) reasoning about what is or isn&#8217;t a bias.  In a heated public debate, I worry that arguments about what is or isn&#8217;t a bias will cripple any benefit that might be derived.  In the silence of our own minds we might do better, given a humanly realistic amount of self-honesty.</p>
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		<title>By: Guy Kahane</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/11/pascalian_medit.html#comment-424233</link>
		<dc:creator>Guy Kahane</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 29 Nov 2006 13:24:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/11/pascalian-meditations.html#comment-424233</guid>
		<description>Just to add something further on this point. Those who DO hold that pervasive human bias make direct act consequentialism self-defeating should be particularly interested in the project of overcoming bias. Since this claim about consequentialism is a contingent, empirical claim, the success of such a project could make this objection obsolete. (There are of course other objections to direct a-consequentialism that are untouched by this -- e.g. the claim that having such a direct aim is incompatible with valuable human practices and relations.)
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Just to add something further on this point. Those who DO hold that pervasive human bias make direct act consequentialism self-defeating should be particularly interested in the project of overcoming bias. Since this claim about consequentialism is a contingent, empirical claim, the success of such a project could make this objection obsolete. (There are of course other objections to direct a-consequentialism that are untouched by this &#8212; e.g. the claim that having such a direct aim is incompatible with valuable human practices and relations.)</p>
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		<title>By: Robin Hanson</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/11/pascalian_medit.html#comment-424232</link>
		<dc:creator>Robin Hanson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 29 Nov 2006 10:33:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/11/pascalian-meditations.html#comment-424232</guid>
		<description>Guy, to pursue your analogy, I&#039;m not very convinced that there are many good cases where the consequences are better if we do not pursue consequentialism in each case.  So by analogy I&#039;m not sure there are many good cases where we reduce bias overall by not reducing bias in each case.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Guy, to pursue your analogy, I&#8217;m not very convinced that there are many good cases where the consequences are better if we do not pursue consequentialism in each case.  So by analogy I&#8217;m not sure there are many good cases where we reduce bias overall by not reducing bias in each case.</p>
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		<title>By: Guy Kahane</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/11/pascalian_medit.html#comment-424231</link>
		<dc:creator>Guy Kahane</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 29 Nov 2006 09:40:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/11/pascalian-meditations.html#comment-424231</guid>
		<description>If I may artificially revive the analogy to consequentialism, the general thought here seems to be that, given certain pervasive biases, there are many cases where we would better reduce bias overall if we adopt policies that don&#039;t aim to directly minimise bias in each particular case. But the second-order project of reducing bias in the project of reducing bias is obviously in danger of leading to a regress.

Systems of ideas that allow people to easily generate charges of bias against anyone who disagrees with them have always been popular -- both marxism and psychoanalysis owe some of their enduring appeal to such a feature.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If I may artificially revive the analogy to consequentialism, the general thought here seems to be that, given certain pervasive biases, there are many cases where we would better reduce bias overall if we adopt policies that don&#8217;t aim to directly minimise bias in each particular case. But the second-order project of reducing bias in the project of reducing bias is obviously in danger of leading to a regress.</p>
<p>Systems of ideas that allow people to easily generate charges of bias against anyone who disagrees with them have always been popular &#8212; both marxism and psychoanalysis owe some of their enduring appeal to such a feature.</p>
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		<title>By: Robin Hanson</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/11/pascalian_medit.html#comment-424230</link>
		<dc:creator>Robin Hanson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 28 Nov 2006 23:55:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/11/pascalian-meditations.html#comment-424230</guid>
		<description>Nick and Eliezer, your suggestions that certain kinds of conversation may admit only certain kinds of consideration in order to help progress, contingent on human nature, are not crazy, but they are also not obvious either.  This topic would make a great one for a separate post.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Nick and Eliezer, your suggestions that certain kinds of conversation may admit only certain kinds of consideration in order to help progress, contingent on human nature, are not crazy, but they are also not obvious either.  This topic would make a great one for a separate post.</p>
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