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	<title>Comments on: Beware Amateur Science History</title>
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	<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/11/beware_amateur_.html</link>
	<description>Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future.</description>
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		<title>By: Peter McCluskey</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/11/beware_amateur_.html#comment-424323</link>
		<dc:creator>Peter McCluskey</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 29 Nov 2006 19:50:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/11/beware-amateur-science-history.html#comment-424323</guid>
		<description>A book which provides a good deal of evidence of these biases is Einstein&#039;s Luck: The Truth behind Some of the Greatest Scientific Discoveries by John Waller. Most people on this blog would mainly find it useful as evidence to convince skeptics rather than to improve their understanding of biases.
Eliezer asks: &quot;If tomorrow we found out that all Isaac Newton&#039;s discoveries were really made by his cleaning lady, how would the history of science change?&quot;
It would change what history says about the kind of personality that makes important discoveries (e.g. do they typically have Aspergers?). Which might affect, say, how we should go about identifying the person who will create the first AGI and thereby target arguments about AGI risks at him.
Also, the difference between one hero and many incremental advances has some implications for the patent system, whose desirability is partly based on the assumption that the important inventors are typically identified.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A book which provides a good deal of evidence of these biases is Einstein&#8217;s Luck: The Truth behind Some of the Greatest Scientific Discoveries by John Waller. Most people on this blog would mainly find it useful as evidence to convince skeptics rather than to improve their understanding of biases.<br />
Eliezer asks: &#8220;If tomorrow we found out that all Isaac Newton&#8217;s discoveries were really made by his cleaning lady, how would the history of science change?&#8221;<br />
It would change what history says about the kind of personality that makes important discoveries (e.g. do they typically have Aspergers?). Which might affect, say, how we should go about identifying the person who will create the first AGI and thereby target arguments about AGI risks at him.<br />
Also, the difference between one hero and many incremental advances has some implications for the patent system, whose desirability is partly based on the assumption that the important inventors are typically identified.</p>
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		<title>By: Robin Hanson</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/11/beware_amateur_.html#comment-424322</link>
		<dc:creator>Robin Hanson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 29 Nov 2006 10:59:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/11/beware-amateur-science-history.html#comment-424322</guid>
		<description>TGGP, I hadn&#039;t seen Stigler&#039;s Conjecture - thanks!  See also this essay by Krugman on &quot;Ricardo&#039;s Difficult Idea&quot; mentioned at http://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2006/11/the_intelligent.html
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>TGGP, I hadn&#8217;t seen Stigler&#8217;s Conjecture &#8211; thanks!  See also this essay by Krugman on &#8220;Ricardo&#8217;s Difficult Idea&#8221; mentioned at <a href="http://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2006/11/the_intelligent.html" rel="nofollow">http://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2006/11/the_intelligent.html</a></p>
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		<title>By: TGGP</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/11/beware_amateur_.html#comment-424321</link>
		<dc:creator>TGGP</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 29 Nov 2006 05:15:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/11/beware-amateur-science-history.html#comment-424321</guid>
		<description>Reminds me of Stigler&#039;s Conjecture. George Stigler came up with it, but it was named after his son Stephen.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stigler%27s_conjecture

My algorithms teacher states that algorithms are typically named after the last person to discover them, fitting with Steve Sailer&#039;s statement and the idea that &quot;It&#039;s always in the last place you look, because after you find it you stop looking&quot;.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Reminds me of Stigler&#8217;s Conjecture. George Stigler came up with it, but it was named after his son Stephen.<br />
<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stigler%27s_conjecture" rel="nofollow">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stigler%27s_conjecture</a></p>
<p>My algorithms teacher states that algorithms are typically named after the last person to discover them, fitting with Steve Sailer&#8217;s statement and the idea that &#8220;It&#8217;s always in the last place you look, because after you find it you stop looking&#8221;.</p>
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		<title>By: Robin Hanson</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/11/beware_amateur_.html#comment-424320</link>
		<dc:creator>Robin Hanson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 29 Nov 2006 01:27:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/11/beware-amateur-science-history.html#comment-424320</guid>
		<description>Eliezer, I don&#039;t think that innovators do share as much of the the same faulty perception about who is doing what innovation.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Eliezer, I don&#8217;t think that innovators do share as much of the the same faulty perception about who is doing what innovation.</p>
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		<title>By: Eliezer Yudkowsky</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/11/beware_amateur_.html#comment-424319</link>
		<dc:creator>Eliezer Yudkowsky</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 29 Nov 2006 00:20:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/11/beware-amateur-science-history.html#comment-424319</guid>
		<description>Not that this is an excuse, but...

Robin, the problem is a widespread perception that the last innovator in a chain deserves an overlarge share of the credit.  People who share this bias don&#039;t *think* that anyone is getting shortchanged on credit - that&#039;s the *problem*.  So long as innovators share the same faulty perception, they will think that the incentive structure is working properly, and invest their time accordingly.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Not that this is an excuse, but&#8230;</p>
<p>Robin, the problem is a widespread perception that the last innovator in a chain deserves an overlarge share of the credit.  People who share this bias don&#8217;t *think* that anyone is getting shortchanged on credit &#8211; that&#8217;s the *problem*.  So long as innovators share the same faulty perception, they will think that the incentive structure is working properly, and invest their time accordingly.</p>
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		<title>By: Steve Sailer</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/11/beware_amateur_.html#comment-424318</link>
		<dc:creator>Steve Sailer</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 28 Nov 2006 23:38:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/11/beware-amateur-science-history.html#comment-424318</guid>
		<description>As with Columbus and America, after Darwin discovered the theory of natural selection, it stayed discovered.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As with Columbus and America, after Darwin discovered the theory of natural selection, it stayed discovered.</p>
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		<title>By: Robin Hanson</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/11/beware_amateur_.html#comment-424317</link>
		<dc:creator>Robin Hanson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 28 Nov 2006 20:53:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/11/beware-amateur-science-history.html#comment-424317</guid>
		<description>John, I didn&#039;t mean to imply that there are not real and important innovations, such as in engineering, business, and marketing, nearer to final applications.  My point was just that if all the credit goes to those people, there will be too little incentive to do the other earlier innovation.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>John, I didn&#8217;t mean to imply that there are not real and important innovations, such as in engineering, business, and marketing, nearer to final applications.  My point was just that if all the credit goes to those people, there will be too little incentive to do the other earlier innovation.</p>
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		<title>By: Michael Sullivan</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/11/beware_amateur_.html#comment-424316</link>
		<dc:creator>Michael Sullivan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 28 Nov 2006 20:46:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/11/beware-amateur-science-history.html#comment-424316</guid>
		<description>&quot;MCP, the obvious place for us to start is here, with ourselves. Let us take the logs out of our own eyes before we try to take the motes out of the eyes of others. Especially since those others haven&#039;t exactly begged us for our help with their eye motes.&quot;

But their motes are SO much bigger!
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;MCP, the obvious place for us to start is here, with ourselves. Let us take the logs out of our own eyes before we try to take the motes out of the eyes of others. Especially since those others haven&#8217;t exactly begged us for our help with their eye motes.&#8221;</p>
<p>But their motes are SO much bigger!</p>
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		<title>By: John Thacker</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/11/beware_amateur_.html#comment-424315</link>
		<dc:creator>John Thacker</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 28 Nov 2006 19:15:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/11/beware-amateur-science-history.html#comment-424315</guid>
		<description>&quot;When I point out that these are mainly people with power associated with an innovation, they admit they are more interested in power than in the real innovators.&quot;

But it&#039;s not like Henry Ford in your example was a wealthy monopolist who already owned a successful company and forced Nicolaus Otto to yield his inventions or anything.  He was a automobile designer who produced technical innovations in his car *in addition* to process improvements in large-scale assembly line mass production, marketing, and other business organizations.  Your statement gives the misleading impression that these are mainly people who had power who &quot;stole&quot; an invention.

Rather, the people listed are generally the *successful* people who took an invention, made improvements, and were able to successfully sell it to a mass audience and build a large company out of it.  That adds value to life and affects people directly in a way that a discovery never marketed does not.  Call it a bias towards engineers and away from scientists if you like, but there is a real reason behind the interest.

Henry Ford, Thomas Edison, Willis Carrier and others were inventors who also founded successful companies to market their inventions.  Yes, the incremental improvements to inventions are very important, but it&#039;s understandable that attention focuses on the first person to make something widely commercially practical.  Just as understandable (if a bit unfortunate) is the nationalistic bias that causes people to credit the &quot;most significant&quot; advance necessary for an invention to a citizen of their own country.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;When I point out that these are mainly people with power associated with an innovation, they admit they are more interested in power than in the real innovators.&#8221;</p>
<p>But it&#8217;s not like Henry Ford in your example was a wealthy monopolist who already owned a successful company and forced Nicolaus Otto to yield his inventions or anything.  He was a automobile designer who produced technical innovations in his car *in addition* to process improvements in large-scale assembly line mass production, marketing, and other business organizations.  Your statement gives the misleading impression that these are mainly people who had power who &#8220;stole&#8221; an invention.</p>
<p>Rather, the people listed are generally the *successful* people who took an invention, made improvements, and were able to successfully sell it to a mass audience and build a large company out of it.  That adds value to life and affects people directly in a way that a discovery never marketed does not.  Call it a bias towards engineers and away from scientists if you like, but there is a real reason behind the interest.</p>
<p>Henry Ford, Thomas Edison, Willis Carrier and others were inventors who also founded successful companies to market their inventions.  Yes, the incremental improvements to inventions are very important, but it&#8217;s understandable that attention focuses on the first person to make something widely commercially practical.  Just as understandable (if a bit unfortunate) is the nationalistic bias that causes people to credit the &#8220;most significant&#8221; advance necessary for an invention to a citizen of their own country.</p>
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		<title>By: John Thacker</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/11/beware_amateur_.html#comment-424314</link>
		<dc:creator>John Thacker</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 28 Nov 2006 19:05:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2006/11/beware-amateur-science-history.html#comment-424314</guid>
		<description>&quot;The problem is not that, contrary to heroic mythology, staid committees made the discoveries rather than wild-eyed lunatics. Rather, the problem is that multiple wild-eyed lunatics carefully built on each other&#039;s work, or unknowingly duplicated each other&#039;s work, and then only one of them was crowned Innovator - often the very last one, after nearly all the prior work was accomplished.&quot;

Yes, all true and I agree.  However, my answer to the question of &quot;how it could be worse&quot; is that I fear that the popular press, rather than getting the story right, would merely replace the current type of heroic myth with a new kind of myth, the one about committees.

Of course it&#039;s &quot;wrong,&quot; in some sense, to give all the credit to the one winner rather than the giants on whose shoulders he stood.  But it&#039;s no more particularly morally wrong than the first-mover or other winner-take-all advantages in a free-market system.  I&#039;m not sure how you  can resolve those without taking away large amounts of incentive to improve things and invent.  The historical story reflects the same &quot;unfairness&quot; as the economic results.

&quot;But if what we really celebrate are people who grab credit for innovations, rather than the actual innovators, we may make things worse rather than better.&quot;

Yes.  But please don&#039;t go too far in insulting those whose skills lie in business organization, marketing, implementation, or any of the other things that also help improve our lives.  There is, I think, sometimes an urge to overpraise the &quot;real inventors&quot; (people who are absolutely very important) while ignoring that things like proper supply chain management and the ability to market, manufacture, distribute, and sell a product more efficiently have also brought dramatic gains in welfare.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;The problem is not that, contrary to heroic mythology, staid committees made the discoveries rather than wild-eyed lunatics. Rather, the problem is that multiple wild-eyed lunatics carefully built on each other&#8217;s work, or unknowingly duplicated each other&#8217;s work, and then only one of them was crowned Innovator &#8211; often the very last one, after nearly all the prior work was accomplished.&#8221;</p>
<p>Yes, all true and I agree.  However, my answer to the question of &#8220;how it could be worse&#8221; is that I fear that the popular press, rather than getting the story right, would merely replace the current type of heroic myth with a new kind of myth, the one about committees.</p>
<p>Of course it&#8217;s &#8220;wrong,&#8221; in some sense, to give all the credit to the one winner rather than the giants on whose shoulders he stood.  But it&#8217;s no more particularly morally wrong than the first-mover or other winner-take-all advantages in a free-market system.  I&#8217;m not sure how you  can resolve those without taking away large amounts of incentive to improve things and invent.  The historical story reflects the same &#8220;unfairness&#8221; as the economic results.</p>
<p>&#8220;But if what we really celebrate are people who grab credit for innovations, rather than the actual innovators, we may make things worse rather than better.&#8221;</p>
<p>Yes.  But please don&#8217;t go too far in insulting those whose skills lie in business organization, marketing, implementation, or any of the other things that also help improve our lives.  There is, I think, sometimes an urge to overpraise the &#8220;real inventors&#8221; (people who are absolutely very important) while ignoring that things like proper supply chain management and the ability to market, manufacture, distribute, and sell a product more efficiently have also brought dramatic gains in welfare.</p>
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